The pillar, in detail

Private-credit delinquency

7.70%

of private loans were non-performing in May 2026 verif · May 2026 ↗

it was 2.65% in Nov 2023

AT RISK▼ worsening stability → long-term investment

What was promised

That disinflation and the credit recovery hold without the financial system piling up non-performing loans.

Where it stands today

Non-performing ratio of the financial system's private loan book: 7.70% in May 2026, against 2.65% in November 2023 (the starting point) and 5.56% in December 2025. This is the monthly series the BCRA defines as non-performing credit to the non-financial private sector over total financing to the non-financial private sector. The deterioration is real and we report it as such: the ratio almost tripled over the arc. ⚠️ The denominator is NOT standing still — loans to the private sector grew strongly over the same period, as the credit indicator on this same dashboard measures, so part of the jump is the normal seasoning of a loan book that expanded from a very low base, and part is genuine deterioration. Splitting the two halves requires the breakdown by line (households vs firms), which lives in the 'Calidad de Cartera (por líneas)' sheet of the same annex and has NOT been read yet unconf the decomposition. verif · May 2026 ↗

The historical series

% of the loan book ↗

Our reading

Trend▼ worsening (editorial reading, anchored to the data)

What it enables if sustained thesis

Delinquency rising while credit ACCELERATES → the ratio is moving on the seasoning of new lending, not on deterioration of the old book → financial deepening is still real and the number does not contradict it. R3

Delinquency still rising once credit SLOWS → it is no longer seasoning, it is deterioration → SME credit gets pricier and rationed → the satellite supplier loses precisely the lever it was going to scale with, without profits of its own. R3

An official, monthly, stable-URL series that contradicts the optimism → any claim of ours about credit quality becomes checkable → publishing the uncomfortable figure next to the favourable one is what makes the favourable one credible. R6

What we watchThat delinquency keeps rising while credit slows down: at that point it would no longer be the seasoning of new lending but the deterioration of the old book, and it would hit exactly the SME credit the satellite thesis needs. Tracked in the same annex, monthly.

The rules that rest on the same inference12

The rule is R3 · stability → long-term investment. These rules declare it too: they push in the direction this axis measures. Another 5 axes of the dashboard rest on it.

Mercosur–EU ratified: 450 million consumers open up to agriculture and industryLaw 27,800 (Official Gazette Feb 26, 2026); provisional application from May 1, 2026in force

RIGI: more time and more sectorsDecree 105/2026in force

RIGI: what paperwork you have to file afterwardsDecree 749/2024in force

Super RIGI: data centers, AI and semiconductorsFirst-round approval in the Chamber of Deputies (Jun-2026), in the Senatepending

Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; submitted to Congress)pending

The State reorders the trunk gas pipelines and forces firm transportation contracts to be redrawnRes. SE 66/2026 (Official Gazette, Mar 13, 2026) + Res. ENARGAS 409/2026in execution

Renewables: from state subsidy to private contractRes. SE 400/2025 + DNU 70/2023 (art. 176)in force

First energy privatization closed: Transener goes private for USD 356 MRes. 673/2026 MECON (Official Gazette, May 12, 2026) + Res. 130/2026 ENReGEin execution

Waterway: a 25-year private concessionRes. 36/2026 ANPYN (award Jun 19, 2026, Jan de Nul-Servimagnus)in execution

Pact of May: the roadmap signed with the provincesAct of May (declaration, no law no.) + Council of May by Decree 617/2024pending

Public order: end of unpunished road blockadesResolution 943/2023 (Ministry of Security)in force

The RIGI reaches the railwaysDecree 748/2026in force

The markets that exist because of this same inference7

Supplier niches that declare this same inference rule: this is the demand that opens up if this pillar holds.

Pipeline integrity and inspectionNeuquén

Midstream, storage and GyP channel servicesNeuquén

Port logistics and project cargo transport (Puerto San Antonio Este)Río Negro

Certified metalworking shop for the corridor (Alto Valle)Río Negro

Industrial O&M of the Punta Colorada terminal, tanks and monobuoysRío Negro

Maritime and offshore services of the Golfo San MatíasRío Negro

Energy and transmission for the copper wave (+ mining solar, San Juan)

How often it is updated

Frequency

monthly

Lag

~60 days after the period closes

Latest period published

2026-05

Who publishes it

BCRA's report on banks: the non-performing portfolio comes out with a ~2-month lag.

Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst

Credentials and track record →