The pillar, in detail
Economic activity (EMAE)
+2.0%
Q2-2026 GDP · +2.0% year-on-year, but -0.6% against the previous quarter verif 2026-T2 ↗
the Jul-2026 monthly activity index was -1.4% YoY and -2.9% against June, inherited -1.1% (Nov-2023)
Pillar statusON TRACKTrend▼ worsening
The latest figure meets the promise we measure on this pillar.
What was promised
That, after the initial adjustment, activity grows again and that this growth is led by private tradable sectors.
Where it stands today
In July 2026 the EMAE fell 1.4% year-on-year and 2.9% seasonally adjusted against June. The trend-cycle, which is INDEC's own trend measure, kept rising: +0.2%. Over the first seven months it accumulates +1.7%.The month's drop is in the domestic market: Commerce (−5.1%) and Manufacturing (−4.6%) together took 1.3 points off the year-on-year change. Seven of the fifteen sectors ended in positive territory; Mining and quarrying (+8.4%) and Agriculture (+0.7%) are among those rising, and together with Fishing they contributed 1.0 point. Mining remains positive, but slows against June's +15.6%. Fishing (+424.5%) carries an extraordinary base effect and we do not use it as a trend signal.INDEC revised June: from +2.7% to +3.1% year-on-year, from +0.8% to +0.3% against May, and the first-half cumulative from +1.9% to +2.2%. That revision is incorporated into the series and into our reading. verif Jul 2026 ↗
The historical series
-1.1%-1.4%
Nov-23 → Jul-26 · % YoY ↗See the 33 points of the series · between -8.2% and 7.9%
| Period | Value % YoY |
|---|---|
| Jul-26 | -1.4 |
| Jun-26 | 3.1 |
| May-26 | 0.7 |
| Apr-26 | 2.1 |
| Mar-26 | 6.4 |
| Feb-26 | -1.5 |
| Jan-26 | 2 |
| Dec-25 | 3.5 |
| Nov-25 | -0.1 |
| Oct-25 | 3.2 |
| Sep-25 | 4.8 |
| Aug-25 | 2.1 |
| Jul-25 | 2.8 |
| Jun-25 | 6.4 |
| May-25 | 5.3 |
| Apr-25 | 7.9 |
| Mar-25 | 5.8 |
| Feb-25 | 5.9 |
| Jan-25 | 6.6 |
| Dec-24 | 6.7 |
| Nov-24 | 1.2 |
| Oct-24 | 0.4 |
| Sep-24 | -2.4 |
| Aug-24 | -3.1 |
| Jul-24 | -0.4 |
| Jun-24 | -3.4 |
| May-24 | 1.9 |
| Apr-24 | -1.9 |
| Mar-24 | -8.2 |
| Feb-24 | -2.8 |
| Jan-24 | -4 |
| Dec-23 | -4.7 |
| Nov-23 | -1.1 |
How it is computed: change against the same month a year earlier, on INDEC's index
What it is measured against1
The starting point of this series is November 2023, when the EMAE stood at -1.1% year-on-year. We use that date as a common baseline to follow whether the indicator moves towards or away from the promise we measure. verif Nov 2023 ↗
The comparison, on its own, does not attribute the change to any particular policy.
Our reading
Trend▼ worsening · Julio cayó fuerte en el mes, pero la tendencia-ciclo del INDEC sigue subiendo: la caída se concentra en comercio e industria, y el motor exportador sigue en positivo.
Rule we apply stability → long-term investment
What it enables if sustained thesis
June's broadening did not hold in July: Manufacturing and Commerce fell again and took off 1.3 points, while mining stayed positive → growth still rests on the export engine → until the domestic market follows for several months in a row, firm demand for a supplier lies in the sectors that export. R4+R5
What we watchThat the improvement survives the next revisions and holds for several months. July came in at -1.4% year on year, like February 2026 (-1.5%) and November 2025 (-0.1%), which were isolated months. If August (21-Oct-2026) is also negative and INDEC's trend-cycle stops rising, it is no longer an isolated month and this pillar moves to «at risk». Also watch for Manufacturing and Retail to return to positive.
Policies and rules related to this pillar13
We do not attribute this indicator to a single rule. Here we gather the policies and rules we track because they can affect the conditions related to this pillar, each with its status and its source.
Mercosur–EU ratified: 450 million consumers open up to agriculture and industryLey 27.800 (Official Gazette Feb 26, 2026); provisional application from May 1, 2026in force
Enhanced RIGI for new activities: data centers, AI and semiconductors (half-sanctioned)Half-sanction by the Chamber of Deputies (24-Jun-2026) · in the Senate, without a committee report and without a datepending
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; pending congressional approval)pending
Federal Registry of Mining Suppliers: it is public, and does not certify complianceRes. S.M. 84/2022in force
The State reorders the trunk gas pipelines and forces firm transportation contracts to be redrawnRes. SE 66/2026 (Official Gazette, Mar 13, 2026) + Res. ENARGAS 409/2026in execution
First energy privatization closed: Transener goes private for USD 356 MRes. 673/2026 MECON (Official Gazette, May 12, 2026) + Res. 130/2026 ENReGEin execution
Waterway: a 25-year private concessionRes. 36/2026 ANPYN (award) · private management since Sep 10, 2026in execution
Pacto de Mayo: the roadmap signed with the provincesAct of May (declaration, no law no.) + Council of May by Decreto 617/2024pending
Anti-roadblock protocol: federal forces can clear road blockadesResolución 943/2023 (Ministry of Security)in force
Markets linked to this pillar8
These markets belong to sectors whose activity also shows up in relation to this pillar. We show them to connect the aggregate indicator with concrete markets for goods and services that we track in the large projects. Their presence here does not mean this indicator is the cause of that demand.
Which part of this can reach your company?
The pillar shows the economic context. For a company we run a different cross-check: which projects buy what you make, who buys, when that purchase appears and what you would need to prepare to get in.
Where my company can get inHow often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~55 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-07
Who publishes it
INDEC's EMAE, released with a ~2-month lag on the month it measures.
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows