Economic activity (EMAE)

June 2026 EMAE: +2.7% YoY, +0.8% seasonally adjusted vs May and +0.2% m/m trend-cycle. January-June cumulative: +1.9% YoY. ⭐ The sectoral dispersion that had been widening HAS BEGUN TO CLOSE, and that is what changes the reading: in June 13 of the 16 sectors are in positive territory, with Manufacturing swinging from −5.6% YoY in May to +1.9%, and Commerce from −3.9% to +0.8% — the two sectors that had been falling hardest. The sectors that were already pulling remain up: Mining and quarrying +15.6% YoY, Financial intermediation +5.1% and Agriculture +4.6%. Fishing prints +247.6%, a base effect that describes no trend. Only three sectors remain negative: Public administration −1.5%, Electricity, gas and water −0.4% and Education −0.1%. ⚠️ AND MAY WAS REVISED: today's vintage puts it at +0.4% YoY where this very axis published +0.2% — refreshing the EMAE is never just copying the new month, because INDEC corrects backwards. ⭐ DURABLE-GOODS COUNTERWEIGHT (INDEC, 'Vehicle registration indices', Q2-2026): the quarter recorded 364,433 units registered, +13.6% y/y and +16.9% year to date. The composition shows where that growth comes from, and that is what makes it useful: motorcycles are up 50.0% y/y in June while cars fall 15.1% (-9.3% year to date). This is the shape of a credit reopening that starts from the floor —with three-digit inflation there is no instalment that can be fixed in real terms, so the first durable good bought on credit again is the smallest ticket— and it is also the one made here: 96.7% of the motorcycles registered are of domestic origin against 15.2% of the cars. The rung above arrives later, not instead of this one. verif · Jun 2026 ↗