The pillar, in detail
Energy production (Vaca Muerta)
678,714
bbl/d of oil in Neuquén · August 2026, record high verif Aug 2026 ↗
Pillar statusON TRACKTrend▲ improving
The latest figure meets the promise we measure on this pillar.
What was promised
The productive core of the export model: Vaca Muerta sustains a rising production curve.
Where it stands today
678,714 bbl/d of oil in Neuquén in August 2026 (new provincial record; +4.2% over July, +14.0% over Dec-2025 and +25.3% year on year) and 115.474 MMm³/d of gas (-2.2% against July, +2.0% year on year). Neuquén supplies 72.8% of the country's oil (931,909 bbl/d). Gas moves almost flat while oil keeps climbing: the winter peak was June (118.579 MMm³/d). Our own aggregation of the official well-level microdata (SESCO, Argentine Energy Secretariat), added up using the definition of the pivot table the ministry publishes; the August file is the first version and the Secretariat may revise it. The 685,316 bbl/d figure that circulated in the press does not come from this series.⛔ THE SERIES CHANGED ITS YARDSTICK IN JULY and the detail is in the method note: until June this axis published Chapter IV, whose portal has not opened from any network for months. verif Aug 2026 ↗
The historical series
See the 34 points of the series · between -160 and 1,478
| Period | Value USD M |
|---|---|
| Aug-26 | 976.5 |
| Jul-26 | 896.9 |
| Jun-26 | 623.1 |
| May-26 | 1,478 |
| Apr-26 | 1418.1 |
| Mar-26 | 1126.4 |
| Feb-26 | 532.7 |
| Jan-26 | 782.8 |
| Dec-25 | 907.3 |
| Nov-25 | 869.5 |
| Oct-25 | 693.1 |
| Sep-25 | 766.6 |
| Aug-25 | 750.9 |
| Jul-25 | 99.1 |
| Jun-25 | 721.4 |
| May-25 | 351.7 |
| Apr-25 | 557.7 |
| Mar-25 | 766.8 |
| Feb-25 | 641.6 |
| Jan-25 | 703.4 |
| Dec-24 | 880.2 |
| Nov-24 | 527.3 |
| Oct-24 | 610.5 |
| Sep-24 | 589.1 |
| Aug-24 | 253.1 |
| Jul-24 | 114.8 |
| Jun-24 | -160.1 |
| May-24 | 476.1 |
| Apr-24 | 704.2 |
| Mar-24 | 739.2 |
| Feb-24 | 570.6 |
| Jan-24 | 424.9 |
| Dec-23 | 404.3 |
| Nov-23 | 319.6 |
How it is computed: the difference between two monthly INDEC series: fuel and energy exports minus fuel and lubricant imports
The energy balance is not published as a series of its own; it is the difference between two that are. It reconciles with what the Energy Secretariat reports: June-2026 gives 611.5 and the agency announced USD 612 M.
Our reading
Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
Rule we apply better export netback
What it enables if sustained thesis
Record curve (678,714 bbl/d in August) → fills the new pipelines (VMOS, Oldelval) → each incremental barrel is almost pure export (Exports pillar: energy +42.5% YoY in H1 2026, June ICA). R5
More profitable wells → more demand for sand, water, equipment, logistics and people — the basin's service opportunities we quantified depend on this curve. R5
Vaca Muerta at scale → Argentina goes from energy importer to structural energy exporter → it permanently changes the FX balance (the energy deficit was THE drain of the past decade). R5+R2
What we watchBrent/WTI below Vaca Muerta's breakeven (~USD 45-50) or an evacuation bottleneck (VMOS/Oldelval/TGS) → stalls the curve despite the course.
Policies and rules related to this pillar13
We do not attribute this indicator to a single rule. Here we gather the policies and rules we track because they can affect the conditions related to this pillar, each with its status and its source.
Fiscal Package: asset amnesty, moratorium and tax cutsLey 27.743 (Official Gazette Jul 8, 2024)in force
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; pending congressional approval)pending
Industrial export taxes to zero: chemicals, metals and autos export duty-freeDecreto 566/2026 (Official Gazette Jul 1, 2026)in force
PAÍS Tax: it rose, fell and expiredDecreto 29/2023 + Decreto 777/2024 (expiry of Ley 27.541, 12/23/2024)in execution
Comahue dams: all four plants move to private concessionRes. 2124/2025, Ministry of Economy (Official Gazette Dec 30, 2025)in force
Tax reform: the "Súper IVA" arriving in stagesExecutive announcement/design, no law or decree number (not submitted to Congress as of Jun-2026)pending
Crawling peg: from 2% to 1% (later replaced by bands)BCRA statement Jan 16, 2025 (no Communication A cited)in execution
The comprehensive labor reform is now lawLey 27.802 (Official Gazette, Mar 6, 2026, promulgated by Decreto 137/2026)in force
Labor reform regulated: registration with ARCA, digital pay slip and the end of ultra-activityDecreto 407/2026 (Official Gazette, Jun 1, 2026)in force
Labor: a severance fund (FAL) may replace the dismissal paymentDecreto 408/2026 · Resolución General CNV 1167/2026 · Resolución General ARCA 5907/2026in force
Markets linked to this pillar15
These markets belong to sectors whose activity also shows up in relation to this pillar. We show them to connect the aggregate indicator with concrete markets for goods and services that we track in the large projects. Their presence here does not mean this indicator is the cause of that demand.
HSE, well control and safetyNeuquén
Which part of this can reach your company?
The pillar shows the economic context. For a company we run a different cross-check: which projects buy what you make, who buys, when that purchase appears and what you would need to prepare to get in.
Where my company can get inHow often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~30 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-08
Who publishes it
SESCO (Energy Secretariat), which publishes the pivot-table ZIP around the 26th of the following month — the July cut came out on 26 Aug. It downloads over HTTP, not HTTPS.
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows