The pillar, in detail
Energy production (Vaca Muerta)
634,406
bbl/d of oil in Neuquén · May 2026, record verif · May 2026 ↗
What was promised
The productive core of the export model: Vaca Muerta sustains a rising production curve.
Where it stands today
634,406 bbl/d of oil in Neuquén in May 2026 (new provincial record; +0.6% over April and +6.1% over Dec-2025) and 112.42 MMm³/d of gas — above the 2025 winter peak (112.3) and heading into this winter's peak. Our own aggregation of the official well-level microdata (Chapter IV, national Energy Secretariat). YPF concentrates ~52% of the provincial crude. verif · May 2026 ↗
The historical series
Our reading
Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
What it enables if sustained thesis
Record curve (634,406 bbl/d in May) → fills the new pipelines (VMOS, Oldelval) → each incremental barrel is almost pure export (Exports pillar: energy +42.5% YoY in H1 2026, June ICA). R5
More profitable wells → more demand for sand, water, equipment, logistics and people — the basin's service opportunities quantified by the observatory depend on this curve. R5
Vaca Muerta at scale → Argentina goes from energy importer to structural energy exporter → it permanently changes the FX balance (the energy deficit was THE drain of the past decade). R5+R2
What we watchBrent/WTI below Vaca Muerta's breakeven (~USD 45-50) or an evacuation bottleneck (VMOS/Oldelval/TGS) → stalls the curve despite the course.
The rules that rest on the same inference13
The rule is R5 · better export netback. These rules declare it too: they push in the direction this axis measures. Another 1 axes of the dashboard rest on it.
Fiscal Package: asset declaration, moratorium and tax cutsLaw 27.743 (Official Gazette Jul 8, 2024)in force
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; submitted to Congress)pending
Industrial export taxes to zero: chemicals, metals and autos export duty-freeDecree 566/2026 (Official Gazette Jul 1, 2026)in force
PAÍS Tax: it rose, fell and expiredDecree 29/2023 + Decree 777/2024 (expiry of Law 27.541, 12/23/2024)in execution
The Comahue returns to private hands: 4 dams awarded in concessionRes. 2124/2025, Ministry of Economy (Official Gazette Dec 30, 2025)in force
Tax reform: the "Super VAT" that comes in installmentsExecutive announcement/design, no law or decree number (not submitted to Congress as of Jun-2026)pending
Crawling peg: from 2% to 1% (later superseded by bands)BCRA statement Jan 16, 2025 (no Communication A cited)in execution
The comprehensive labor reform is now lawLaw 27,802 (Official Gazette, Mar 6, 2026, promulgated by Decree 137/2026)in force
The labor reform lands: transparent pay slip, ARCA and the end of ultra-activityDecree 407/2026 (Official Gazette, Jun 1, 2026)in force
The markets that exist because of this same inference15
Supplier niches that declare this same inference rule: this is the demand that opens up if this pillar holds.
HSE, well control and safetyNeuquén
How often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~30 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-05
Who publishes it
Chapter IV of the Secretariat of Energy, which closes the month around the end of the following one.
Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
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Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
How to read the seals → verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf not sufficiently backed · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading