The pillar, in detail
Energy production (Vaca Muerta)
651,151
bbl/d of oil in Neuquén · July 2026, record high verif Jul 2026 ↗
What was promised
The productive core of the export model: Vaca Muerta sustains a rising production curve.
Where it stands today
651,151 bbl/d of oil in Neuquén in July 2026 (new provincial record; +1.7% over June, +9.4% over Dec-2025 and +24.0% year on year) and 118.069 MMm³/d of gas. ⚠️ The winter peak was JUNE (118.579 MMm³/d), not July: gas eases while oil keeps climbing, which is the sign that crude is what drives the curve. Our own aggregation of the official well-level microdata (SESCO, Argentine Energy Secretariat): 1,175,087 oil records and 800,240 gas records, added up using the definition of the pivot table the ministry publishes. ⛔ THE SERIES CHANGED ITS YARDSTICK IN THIS READING and the detail is in the method note: until June this axis published Chapter IV, whose portal has not opened from any network for months. verif Jul 2026 ↗
The historical series
See the 32 points of the series · between -160 and 1,478
| Period | Value USD M |
|---|---|
| Jun-26 | 611.5 |
| May-26 | 1,478 |
| Apr-26 | 1418.1 |
| Mar-26 | 1126.4 |
| Feb-26 | 532.7 |
| Jan-26 | 782.8 |
| Dec-25 | 907.3 |
| Nov-25 | 869.5 |
| Oct-25 | 693.1 |
| Sep-25 | 766.6 |
| Aug-25 | 750.9 |
| Jul-25 | 99.1 |
| Jun-25 | 721.4 |
| May-25 | 351.7 |
| Apr-25 | 557.7 |
| Mar-25 | 766.8 |
| Feb-25 | 641.6 |
| Jan-25 | 703.4 |
| Dec-24 | 880.2 |
| Nov-24 | 527.3 |
| Oct-24 | 610.5 |
| Sep-24 | 589.1 |
| Aug-24 | 253.1 |
| Jul-24 | 114.8 |
| Jun-24 | -160.1 |
| May-24 | 476.1 |
| Apr-24 | 704.2 |
| Mar-24 | 739.2 |
| Feb-24 | 570.6 |
| Jan-24 | 424.9 |
| Dec-23 | 404.3 |
| Nov-23 | 319.6 |
How it is computed: the difference between two monthly INDEC series: fuel and energy exports minus fuel and lubricant imports
The energy balance is not published as a series of its own; it is the difference between two that are. It reconciles with what the Energy Secretariat reports: June-2026 gives 611.5 and the agency announced USD 612 M.
Our reading
Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
What it enables if sustained thesis
Record curve (634,406 bbl/d in May) → fills the new pipelines (VMOS, Oldelval) → each incremental barrel is almost pure export (Exports pillar: energy +42.5% YoY in H1 2026, June ICA). R5
More profitable wells → more demand for sand, water, equipment, logistics and people — the basin's service opportunities we quantified depend on this curve. R5
Vaca Muerta at scale → Argentina goes from energy importer to structural energy exporter → it permanently changes the FX balance (the energy deficit was THE drain of the past decade). R5+R2
What we watchBrent/WTI below Vaca Muerta's breakeven (~USD 45-50) or an evacuation bottleneck (VMOS/Oldelval/TGS) → stalls the curve despite the course.
Which policy pushes this number, and where each rule stands13
The rule is R5 · better export netback. These rules declare it too: they push in the direction this axis measures. Another 1 axes of the dashboard rest on it.
Fiscal Package: asset amnesty, moratorium and tax cutsLey 27.743 (Official Gazette Jul 8, 2024)in force
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; submitted to Congress)pending
Industrial export taxes to zero: chemicals, metals and autos export duty-freeDecreto 566/2026 (Official Gazette Jul 1, 2026)in force
PAÍS Tax: it rose, fell and expiredDecreto 29/2023 + Decreto 777/2024 (expiry of Ley 27.541, 12/23/2024)in execution
The Comahue returns to private hands: 4 dams awardedRes. 2124/2025, Ministry of Economy (Official Gazette Dec 30, 2025)in force
Tax reform: the "Súper IVA" arriving in stagesExecutive announcement/design, no law or decree number (not submitted to Congress as of Jun-2026)pending
Crawling peg: from 2% to 1% (later replaced by bands)BCRA statement Jan 16, 2025 (no Communication A cited)in execution
The comprehensive labor reform is now lawLey 27.802 (Official Gazette, Mar 6, 2026, promulgated by Decreto 137/2026)in force
The labor reform lands: transparent pay slip, ARCA and the end of ultra-activityDecreto 407/2026 (Official Gazette, Jun 1, 2026)in force
The markets that exist because of this same inference15
Supplier niches that declare this same inference rule: this is the demand that opens up if this pillar holds.
HSE, well control and safetyNeuquén
How often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~30 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-07
Who publishes it
SESCO (Energy Secretariat), which publishes the pivot-table ZIP around the 26th of the following month — the July cut came out on 26 Aug. It downloads over HTTP, not HTTPS.
How to read the seals → verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows
Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
Credentials and track record →- 10+ years in data science for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars