The pillar, in detail
Country risk / cost of capital
648 bps
EMBI as of Oct 16 · floor of 402 on Jul 10 (lowest since April 2018) prob Oct 16, 2026 ↗
from 2,601 inherited (Nov-2023): -75%
Pillar statusON TRACKTrend▼ worsening
The latest figure meets the promise we measure on this pillar.
What was promised
A fall in country risk from fiscal credibility → lower financing cost → return to the market.
Where it stands today
648 bps as of Oct 16, 2026 (Ámbito's mirror of the EMBI). In late September it rose in 10 of 12 sessions: 506 on 15-Sep, 515 on 17-Sep, 555 on 22-Sep, 609 on 25-Sep, 628 on 28-Sep, 607 on 30-Sep and 636 on 1-Oct. The floor of the year was 402 on Jul 10: the lowest level since April 2018 — verified against the full 2018-2026 series (the last day below 402 was 13-Apr-2018, 398 bps). Since that floor it has moved +246 bps in 98 days: the index is volatile and no level is a guaranteed floor. In September the central bank had the year's lowest month of FX purchases, and July's monthly activity index fell 2.9% against June. Between the inheritance and the July floor three events the market followed closely took place: the rating upgrades (Fitch CCC+→B- in May, S&P in June), the extension of the central bank's REPO with international banks to Sept-2028 (03-Jul, USD 6,000 M of new funds with demand of USD 8,250 M) and the presentation of the 2026-27 Financing Programme. We do not measure how much each one contributed. The inherited starting point was 2,601 bps (Nov-2023, the chaos left by the outgoing government): it collapsed as soon as the market priced in Milei's arrival (the 19-Nov-2023 run-off) and kept compressing with the fiscal anchor. -75% since the inheritance. prob Oct 16, 2026 ↗
The historical series
2,601648
Nov-23 → Oct-26 · bps ↗See the 37 points of the series · between 426 and 2,601
| Period | Value bps |
|---|---|
| Oct-26 | 648 |
| Sep-26 | 607 |
| Aug-26 | 512 |
| Jul-26 | 430 |
| Jun-26 | 426 |
| May-26 | 493 |
| Apr-26 | 567 |
| Mar-26 | 617 |
| Feb-26 | 572 |
| Jan-26 | 496 |
| Dec-25 | 571 |
| Nov-25 | 648 |
| Oct-25 | 657 |
| Sep-25 | 1,222 |
| Aug-25 | 829 |
| Jul-25 | 730 |
| Jun-25 | 701 |
| May-25 | 663 |
| Apr-25 | 726 |
| Mar-25 | 816 |
| Feb-25 | 780 |
| Jan-25 | 618 |
| Dec-24 | 635 |
| Nov-24 | 752 |
| Oct-24 | 984 |
| Sep-24 | 1,290 |
| Aug-24 | 1,433 |
| Jul-24 | 1,507 |
| Jun-24 | 1,456 |
| May-24 | 1,312 |
| Apr-24 | 1,216 |
| Mar-24 | 1,439 |
| Feb-24 | 1,705 |
| Jan-24 | 1,950 |
| Dec-23 | 1,906 |
| Nov-23 | 1,982 |
| Nov-23 | 2,601 |
How it is computed: the series is daily; here it is plotted one point per month, the last of each
The EMBI is a proprietary J.P. Morgan index with no public official feed: the series comes in through Ámbito's mirror and is 'probable' by nature, just like the pillar itself.
Our reading
Trend▼ worsening (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
Rule we apply lowers country risk
What it enables if sustained thesis
Every 100 bps less of EMBI cheapens the capital of EVERY Argentine project → at ~437 bps the project finance of megaprojects (VMOS, LNG) goes from impossible to negotiable → final investment decisions and supplier demand accelerate. R1+R11
Normal-country country risk → the Treasury and companies return to international markets → debt is refinanced without draining reserves (Reserves pillar). R1+R2
The -76% travelled since the inheritance is the market's validation of the fiscal anchor: the whole dashboard is priced in this number. R1+R6
What we watchA sustained jump in country risk (an external shock or political-electoral noise the market prices in) → raises the cost of capital and stalls the megaprojects' project finance.
Policies and rules related to this pillar6
We do not attribute this indicator to a single rule. Here we gather the policies and rules we track because they can affect the conditions related to this pillar, each with its status and its source.
Fiscal anchor: surplus two years in a rowExecutive execution policy on the extended budget (Decreto 1131/2024)in force
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; pending congressional approval)pending
The "lock on the State": fiscal balance by lawLey 27.798 (2026 Budget), art. 1 — in force; the permanent "lock on the State" still a billpending
End of segmentation: energy subsidies are targeted at those who need themDecreto 943/2025 (Official Gazette, Jan 2, 2026)in force
Multilateral-guaranteed debt under New York law: the Treasury refinances more cheaplyDecreto 478/2026 (Official Gazette Jun 22, 2026)in force
Markets linked to this pillar4
These markets belong to sectors whose activity also shows up in relation to this pillar. We show them to connect the aggregate indicator with concrete markets for goods and services that we track in the large projects. Their presence here does not mean this indicator is the cause of that demand.
Which part of this can reach your company?
The pillar shows the economic context. For a company we run a different cross-check: which projects buy what you make, who buys, when that purchase appears and what you would need to prepare to get in.
Where my company can get inHow often it is updated
Frequency
daily
Lag
~1 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-10-16
Who publishes it
EMBI+ Argentina, the leading edge of the local series refreshed by the daily automation.
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows