The pillar, in detail
Country risk / cost of capital
509 bps
EMBI as of Aug 27 · floor of 402 on Jul 10 (lowest since April 2018) prob · Aug 27, 2026 ↗
from 2,601 inherited (Nov-2023): -80%
What was promised
A fall in country risk from fiscal credibility → lower financing cost → return to the market.
Where it stands today
509 bps as of Aug 27, 2026 (Ámbito mirror of the EMBI). The year's floor was 402 on Jul 10: the lowest level since April 2018 — verified against the full 2018-2026 series (the last day below 402 was Apr 13, 2018, at 398 bps). Since that floor it has moved +107 bps in 48 days: the index is volatile and today's level is not a guaranteed floor. Three drivers pulled the 2026 compression: the rating upgrades (Fitch CCC+→B- in May, S&P in June), the extension of the BCRA's REPO with international banks to Sep-2028 (Jul 3, USD 6,000 M new with USD 8,250 M oversubscription) and the presentation of the 2026-27 Financial Program. The inherited starting point was 2,601 bps (Nov-2023, the chaos left by the outgoing government): it collapsed as soon as the market priced in Milei's arrival (the Nov 19, 2023 runoff) and kept compressing with the fiscal anchor. -80% from the inheritance. prob · Aug 27, 2026 ↗
The historical series
2,601509
Nov-23 → Aug-26 · bps ↗See the 35 points of the series · between 426 and 2,601
| Period | Value bps |
|---|---|
| Aug-26 | 509 |
| Jul-26 | 430 |
| Jun-26 | 426 |
| May-26 | 493 |
| Apr-26 | 567 |
| Mar-26 | 617 |
| Feb-26 | 572 |
| Jan-26 | 496 |
| Dec-25 | 571 |
| Nov-25 | 648 |
| Oct-25 | 657 |
| Sep-25 | 1,222 |
| Aug-25 | 829 |
| Jul-25 | 730 |
| Jun-25 | 701 |
| May-25 | 663 |
| Apr-25 | 726 |
| Mar-25 | 816 |
| Feb-25 | 780 |
| Jan-25 | 618 |
| Dec-24 | 635 |
| Nov-24 | 752 |
| Oct-24 | 984 |
| Sep-24 | 1,290 |
| Aug-24 | 1,433 |
| Jul-24 | 1,507 |
| Jun-24 | 1,456 |
| May-24 | 1,312 |
| Apr-24 | 1,216 |
| Mar-24 | 1,439 |
| Feb-24 | 1,705 |
| Jan-24 | 1,950 |
| Dec-23 | 1,906 |
| Nov-23 | 1,982 |
| Nov-23 | 2,601 |
How it is computed: the series is daily; here it is plotted one point per month, the last of each
The EMBI is a proprietary J.P. Morgan index with no public official feed: the series comes in through Ámbito's mirror and is 'probable' by nature, just like the pillar itself.
Our reading
Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
What it enables if sustained thesis
Every 100 bps less of EMBI cheapens the capital of EVERY Argentine project → at ~437 bps the project finance of megaprojects (VMOS, LNG) goes from impossible to negotiable → final investment decisions and supplier demand accelerate. R1+R11
Normal-country country risk → the Treasury and companies return to international markets → debt is refinanced without draining reserves (Reserves pillar). R1+R2
The -83% already traveled is the market validation of the fiscal anchor: the entire dashboard is priced in this number. R1+R6
What we watchA sustained jump in country risk (an external shock or political-electoral noise the market prices in) → raises the cost of capital and stalls the megaprojects' project finance.
The rules that rest on the same inference6
The rule is R1 · lowers country risk. These rules declare it too: they push in the direction this axis measures. Another 2 axes of the dashboard rest on it.
Fiscal anchor: surplus two years in a rowExecutive execution policy on the extended budget (Decree 1131/2024)in force
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; submitted to Congress)pending
The "lock on the State": fiscal balance by lawLaw 27.798 (2026 Budget), art. 1 — in force; the permanent "lock on the State" still a billpending
End of segmentation: energy subsidies are targeted at those who need themDecree 943/2025 (Official Gazette, Jan 2, 2026)in force
Multilateral-guaranteed debt under New York law: the Treasury refinances more cheaplyDecree 478/2026 (Official Gazette Jun 22, 2026)in force
The markets that exist because of this same inference4
Supplier niches that declare this same inference rule: this is the demand that opens up if this pillar holds.
How often it is updated
Frequency
daily
Lag
~1 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-08-27
Who publishes it
EMBI+ Argentina, the leading edge of the local series refreshed by the daily automation.
Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
Credentials and track record →
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Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
How to read the seals → verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf not sufficiently backed · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading