Pillar by pillar
The economic program, measured across 18 pillars
The 18 pillars of the program, each with its promise, the latest sourced figure and how often it is updated. 14 are on track today and 8 have a historical series going back to November 2023, the month before the inauguration.
Pillars measured
18
each with its own page
On track
14
on the promise, today
With a series
8
historical, since Nov 2023
Checked this week
4
against their source, of 18
The 18 pillars
Tracking · our reading 12 of the 18 axes are improving and 4 hold steady. Of those that have not reached their promise yet, Disinflation · Real wages are already heading that way. Employment · Private-credit delinquency are the ones we follow closely.
Status
| Pillar | Latest figure | Status · our reading | Trend · our reading | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal anchor accumulated financial surplus · H1 2026 (% of GDP) · the primary balance went from -2.9% inherited (2023) to ~+0.6% | 0.1% verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | monthly+~20 days lag |
| Disinflation monthly CPI · July 2026 · 33.8% YoY · inherited 12.8% monthly (Nov-2023), peak 25.5% (Dec-2023) | 2.1% verif ↗ | IN PROGRESS | ▲ improving | monthly+~14 days lag |
| Country risk / cost of capital EMBI as of Aug 27 · floor of 402 on Jul 10 (lowest since April 2018) · from 2,601 inherited (Nov-2023): -80% | 509 bps prob ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | daily+~1 day lag |
| BCRA reserves gross as of Aug 25, 2026 · +7,808 M in 2026 · June target met | USD 50,913 M verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | daily+~1 day lag |
| Deregulation and opening articles modified or eliminated · official counter, Jul-2026 | 16,771 verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~5 days lag |
| Investment (RIGI) approved RIGI projects · USD 47,073 M (official portal, Aug-2026) | 22 verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | by event — no calendar |
| Energy production (Vaca Muerta) bbl/d of oil in Neuquén · May 2026, record | 634,406 verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~30 days lag |
| Poverty poverty H2-2025 · from the 52.9% peak (H1-2024) to 28.2%: the lowest since 2018 | 28.2% verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | twice a year+~90 days lag |
| Employment private employment YoY · May-2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) it has shed 279,200 jobs: -4.4% | -2.2% verif ↗ | AT RISK | ▼ worsening | monthly+~90 days lag |
| Exports / trade surplus record half-year · H1 2026 · USD 49,454 M against 33,474 M inherited (H1-2023): +47.7% | USD 49,454 M verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~20 days lag |
| Security / public order homicides per 100,000 inhab. · 2025 · from 4.4 inherited (2023) to 3.6: all-time low | 3.6 verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | annual+~180 days lag |
| FX regime / exit from currency controls wholesale FX A3500 as of Aug 27, 2026 · gap ~0 | $1,512.75 verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | daily+~1 day lag |
| Credit to the private sector private loans as of Aug 6, 2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) the real stock nearly doubles: +92.0% | $140.3 B verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | daily+~1 day lag |
| Economic activity (EMAE) EMAE year-on-year · May 2026 · inherited -1.1% YoY (Nov-2023) · -0.5% monthly seas. adj. · 5-month cumulative +1.7% | +0.2% verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | monthly+~55 days lag |
| Real wages real wage · May 2026 · since Nov-2023 it is up +3.1% (as of April), after a trough of -16.7% | ~+2.0% estim | IN PROGRESS | ▲ improving | monthly+~55 days lag |
| Size of the State (chainsaw) public jobs · May-2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) it has shed 104,900 posts: -3.0% | 3.379 M verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | monthly+~90 days lag |
| Tax burden / tax cuts 12-month real tax collection · Jul-2026 · less than what was inherited, and from an economy exporting 26.9% more that grew 2.3% | -10.5% verif ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~5 days lag |
| Private-credit delinquency of private loans were non-performing in May 2026 · it was 2.65% in Nov 2023 | 7.70% verif ↗ | AT RISK | ▼ worsening | monthly+~60 days lag |
All 18 open a page with the series, the rules that push in the same direction and the publication calendar of their source.
The accounts, one by one
Beyond the pillars we keep the scoreboard of what the national government claims about its own record: every claim with its verdict and its source.
Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
Credentials and track record →
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The full directory, with the fact sheet of each entry and the source of each figure.
How to read the seals → verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf not sufficiently backed · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading