The economic program, measured across 18 pillars
We track 18 pillars of the economic program. In each file we publish the promise we measure, the latest available figure, its source and when it is updated next. By the criterion defined in each file, 14 meet their promise today, 2 have not reached it yet but are moving towards it and 2 are moving away. 9 have a historical series since November 2023.
We do not measure whether the program is «going well» overall: each pillar is compared against the specific promise published on its own profile.
The 18 pillars
Tracking · our reading 9 of the 18 pillars are improving by the metric defined in their file, 3 hold steady and 6 are getting worse. Among those that have not reached their promise yet, Disinflation and Real wages are moving towards it; Employment and Private-credit delinquency are moving away and are the ones we follow most closely.
How we read the status: on track, the latest figure meets the promise; in progress, it does not meet the promise yet and is moving towards it; at risk, it does not meet the promise yet and is moving away from it. Each status is measured against the promise published on that profile, not against a general judgement of the program.
| Pillar | Latest figure | Status · our reading | Trend · our reading | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal anchor accumulated financial surplus · first 8 months of 2026 (% of GDP) · the primary balance went from an inherited -2.9% (2023) to ~+1.1% | 0.2%Secretaría de Hacienda verif Aug 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | monthly+~20 days lag |
| Disinflation monthly CPI · August 2026 · 33.5% YoY · inherited 12.8% monthly (Nov-2023), peak 25.5% (Dec-2023) | 1.7%INDEC verif Aug 2026 ↗ | IN PROGRESS | ▲ improving | monthly+~14 days lag |
| Country risk / cost of capital EMBI as of Oct 16 · floor of 402 on Jul 10 (lowest since April 2018) · from 2,601 inherited (Nov-2023): -75% | 648 bpsÁmbito Financiero prob Oct 16, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▼ worsening | daily+~1 day lag |
| BCRA reserves gross as of Oct 14, 2026 · +6,618 M in 2026 · June target met | USD 49,723 MBCRA verif Oct 14, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▼ worsening | daily+~1 day lag |
| Deregulation and opening articles amended or repealed · official counter, Aug-2026 | 17,115Min. de Desregulación verif Aug 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~5 days lag |
| Investment (RIGI) approved RIGI projects · USD 56,198 M (official spreadsheet, 15-Oct-2026) | 24Ministerio de Economía verif Oct 15, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | by event — no calendar |
| Energy production (Vaca Muerta) bbl/d of oil in Neuquén · August 2026, record high | 678,714Secretaría de Energía verif Aug 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~30 days lag |
| Poverty poverty H1-2026 · +4.1 points against the previous half, no significant change against H1-2025 (31.6%) · peak of 52.9% (H1-2024), 41.7% inherited | 32.3%INDEC verif 2026-S1 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▼ worsening | twice a year+~90 days lag |
| Employment private employment YoY · Jun-2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) it adds up to -290,000 jobs: -4.5% | -1.9%Secretaría de Trabajo verif Jun 2026 ↗ | AT RISK | ▼ worsening | monthly+~90 days lag |
| Exports / trade surplus record 8-month run · Jan-Aug 2026 · USD 67,248 M, +21.4% YoY · surplus +USD 18,249 M | USD 67,248 MINDEC verif Aug 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~20 days lag |
| Security / public order homicides per 100,000 inhab. · 2025 · from 4.4 inherited (2023) to 3.6: all-time low | 3.6Ministerio de Seguridad verif 2025 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | annual+~180 days lag |
| FX regime / exit from currency controls wholesale FX A3500 as of Oct 16, 2026 · gap ~0 | $1,514.57BCRA verif Oct 16, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | daily+~1 day lag |
| Credit to the private sector private loans as of Oct 14, 2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) the real stock nearly doubles: +91.1% | $147.5 BBCRA verif Oct 14, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | daily+~1 day lag |
| Economic activity (EMAE) Q2-2026 GDP · +2.0% year-on-year, but -0.6% against the previous quarter · the Jul-2026 monthly activity index was -1.4% YoY and -2.9% against June, inherited -1.1% (Nov-2023) | +2.0%INDEC verif Jul 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▼ worsening | monthly+~55 days lag |
| Real wages real wages · July 2026 · since Nov-2023 up +4.9%, after a trough of -16.7% | ~+1.8%INDEC estim Jul 2026 | IN PROGRESS | ▲ improving | monthly+~55 days lag |
| Size of the State public jobs · Jun-2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) it adds up to -88,400 jobs: -2.5% | 3.396 MSecretaría de Trabajo verif Jun 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | monthly+~90 days lag |
| Tax burden / tax cuts Aug-2026 tax collection · +33.5% YoY nominal, flat against inflation · the 12-month real series adds up to -10.5%: that is ARS 28.3 trillion that stopped leaving Argentine pockets | -10.5%ARCA verif Aug 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~5 days lag |
| Private-credit delinquency of the private loan portfolio was irregular in Jul-2026 · it was 2.65% in Nov-2023 | 7.70%BCRA verif Jul 2026 ↗ | AT RISK | ▼ worsening | monthly+~60 days lag |
All 18 open their own page with the series, the policies and rules related to that pillar and the calendar of their source.
Public claims, one by one
Besides the 18 pillars, we track public claims made by the government about its own record. For each one we show what was claimed, what evidence we found and which source we used to check it.
These 18 pillars show what is changing in the economy. For a company that wants to sell into the investments, the next question is a different one: in which projects concrete demand shows up, who buys and what it takes to get in.
We run that cross-check company by company.
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