The economic program, measured across 18 pillars
The 18 pillars of the program, each with its promise, the latest sourced figure and how often it is updated. On the latest figure published by each source, 14 meet their promise, 2 are moving towards it and 2 are moving away. 9 have a historical series going back to November 2023, the month before the inauguration.
The 18 pillars
Tracking · our reading 12 of the 18 pillars are improving, 4 hold steady and 2 are getting worse. Of those that have not reached their promise yet, Disinflation · Real wages are already heading that way. Employment · Private-credit delinquency are moving away from it, and the ones we follow closely.
How we read the status: on track, the latest figure meets the promise; in progress, it does not meet the promise yet and is moving towards it; at risk, it does not meet the promise yet and is moving away from it. It is measured against the promise published on each profile, not against whether we think the policy is right.
| Pillar | Latest figure | Status · our reading | Trend · our reading | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fiscal anchor accumulated financial surplus · H1 2026 (% of GDP) · the primary balance went from -2.9% inherited (2023) to ~+0.6% | 0.1%Ministerio de Economía verif Jun 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | monthly+~20 days lag |
| Disinflation monthly CPI · July 2026 · 33.8% YoY · inherited 12.8% monthly (Nov-2023), peak 25.5% (Dec-2023) | 2.1%INDEC verif Jul 2026 ↗ | IN PROGRESS | ▲ improving | monthly+~14 days lag |
| Country risk / cost of capital EMBI as of Aug 28 · floor of 402 on Jul 10 (lowest since April 2018) · from 2,601 inherited (Nov-2023): -80% | 512 bpsÁmbito Financiero prob Aug 28, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | daily+~1 day lag |
| BCRA reserves gross as of Sep 4, 2026 · +7,655 M in 2026 · June target met | USD 50,760 MBCRA verif Sep 4, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | daily+~1 day lag |
| Deregulation and opening articles modified or eliminated · official counter, Jul-2026 | 16,771Min. de Desregulación verif Jul 31, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~5 days lag |
| Investment (RIGI) approved RIGI projects · USD 47,073 M (official portal, Aug-2026) | 22Ministerio de Economía verif Aug 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | by event — no calendar |
| Energy production (Vaca Muerta) bbl/d of oil in Neuquén · July 2026, record high | 651,151Secretaría de Energía verif Jul 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~30 days lag |
| Poverty poverty H2-2025 · from the 52.9% peak (H1-2024) to 28.2%: the lowest since 2018 | 28.2%INDEC verif 2025-S2 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | twice a year+~90 days lag |
| Employment private employment YoY · May-2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) it has shed 279,200 jobs: -4.4% | -2.2%Min. de Capital Humano verif May 2026 ↗ | AT RISK | ▼ worsening | monthly+~90 days lag |
| Exports / trade surplus record half-year · H1 2026 · USD 49,454 M against 33,474 M inherited (H1-2023): +47.7% | USD 49,454 MINDEC verif Jun 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~20 days lag |
| Security / public order homicides per 100,000 inhab. · 2025 · from 4.4 inherited (2023) to 3.6: all-time low | 3.6Ministerio de Seguridad verif 2025 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | annual+~180 days lag |
| FX regime / exit from currency controls wholesale FX A3500 as of Sep 8, 2026 · gap ~0 | $1,510.10BCRA verif Sep 8, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | daily+~1 day lag |
| Credit to the private sector private loans as of Sep 4, 2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) the real stock nearly doubles: +91.1% | $143.4 BBCRA verif Sep 4, 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | daily+~1 day lag |
| Economic activity (EMAE) EMAE year-on-year · June 2026 · inherited -1.1% YoY (Nov-2023) · +0.8% monthly seas. adj. · 6-month cumulative +1.9% | +2.7%INDEC verif Jun 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | monthly+~55 days lag |
| Real wages real wage · May 2026 · since Nov-2023 it is up +3.1% (as of April), after a trough of -16.7% | ~+2.0%INDEC estim May 2026 | IN PROGRESS | ▲ improving | monthly+~55 days lag |
| Size of the State (chainsaw) public jobs · May-2026 · since the inheritance (Nov-2023) it has shed 104,900 posts: -3.0% | 3.379 MMin. de Capital Humano verif May 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▬ stable | monthly+~90 days lag |
| Tax burden / tax cuts 12-month real tax collection · Jul-2026 · that is $28.3 trillion that stopped leaving Argentine pockets, with the economy growing 2.3% and exporting 26.9% more | -10.5%ARCA verif Jul 2026 ↗ | ON TRACK | ▲ improving | monthly+~5 days lag |
| Private-credit delinquency of private loans were non-performing in May 2026 · it was 2.65% in Nov 2023 | 7.70%BCRA verif May 2026 ↗ | AT RISK | ▼ worsening | monthly+~60 days lag |
All 18 open a page with the series, the rules that push in the same direction and the publication calendar of their source.
The accounts, one by one
Beyond the pillars we keep the scoreboard of what the national government claims about its own record: every claim with its verdict and its source.
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