The pillar, in detail
Exports / trade surplus
USD 67,248 M
record 8-month run · Jan-Aug 2026 · USD 67,248 M, +21.4% YoY · surplus +USD 18,249 M verif Aug 2026 ↗
Pillar statusON TRACKTrend▲ improving
The latest figure meets the promise we measure on this pillar.
What was promised
An export-led model: opening up, more markets and a sustained trade surplus as a source of foreign currency.
Where it stands today
Record January-August 2026 cumulative: USD 67,248 M exported (+21.4% YoY) with a trade surplus of +USD 18,249 M — more than THREE TIMES the Jan-Aug 2025 surplus (USD 5,109 M); imports USD 48,999 M (-2.6%). August: exports USD 8,883 M (+12.4% YoY, an all-time record for the month), imports USD 6,696 M (+3.6%), surplus USD 2,187 M, total trade USD 15,579 M (+8.4%) — the 33rd consecutive month with a positive balance. The year's monthly record is still May (USD 9,578 M). By major category, August YoY: Fuels and Energy +41.2% (USD 1,494 M), MOI (industrial manufactures) +18.0% (USD 2,356 M), MOA (agricultural manufactures) +16.7% (USD 3,301 M), Primary Products -14.2% (USD 1,731 M) — energy remains the engine, with an 8-month cumulative of USD 10,667 M (+48.9% YoY), the largest in the series for the period. The BROAD energy balance (exports of the Fuels and Energy category minus imports of fuels and lubricants) closed August at +USD 976 M and the cumulative at +USD 7,834 M. Fresh provincial origin data (August ICA): Neuquén exported USD 810 M in August (99.2% energy) and USD 6,031 M in the 8-month cumulative (USD 5,938 M of energy) — about 9.1% of the country's exports in the month, about 9.0% in the cumulative. verif Aug 2026 ↗
The historical series
4,9238,883
Nov-23 → Aug-26 · USD M ↗See the 34 points of the series · between 4,923 and 9,578
| Period | Value USD M |
|---|---|
| Aug-26 | 8,883 |
| Jul-26 | 8,854 |
| Jun-26 | 9,112 |
| May-26 | 9,578 |
| Apr-26 | 8,916 |
| Mar-26 | 8,697 |
| Feb-26 | 5,963 |
| Jan-26 | 7,245 |
| Dec-25 | 7,482 |
| Nov-25 | 8,133 |
| Oct-25 | 7,963 |
| Sep-25 | 8,128 |
| Aug-25 | 7,903 |
| Jul-25 | 7,761 |
| Jun-25 | 7,275 |
| May-25 | 7,095 |
| Apr-25 | 6,674 |
| Mar-25 | 6,642 |
| Feb-25 | 6,140 |
| Jan-25 | 5,915 |
| Dec-24 | 7,049 |
| Nov-24 | 6,526 |
| Oct-24 | 7,032 |
| Sep-24 | 6,953 |
| Aug-24 | 6,758 |
| Jul-24 | 7,186 |
| Jun-24 | 6,567 |
| May-24 | 7,667 |
| Apr-24 | 6,511 |
| Mar-24 | 6,492 |
| Feb-24 | 5,550 |
| Jan-24 | 5,412 |
| Dec-23 | 5,273 |
| Nov-23 | 4,923 |
How it is computed: the source figure, untransformed
What it is measured against1
The export inheritance, measured H1 against H1: USD 33,474 M exported in the first half of 2023 against 49,454 M in H1-2026, i.e. +47.7%. ⚠️ The comparison is made HALF-YEAR against HALF-YEAR on purpose: the November 2023 point this axis already publishes in its sparkline is 4,923 M and is MONTHLY — setting it against the half-year total would give an arc of ×10 that means nothing. The six months, from the official series: January 4,925.3 · February 5,239.2 · March 5,734.6 · April 5,898.2 · May 6,261.9 · June 5,414.9. verif Jun 2023 ↗
The comparison, on its own, does not attribute the change to any particular policy.
Our reading
Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
Rule we apply better export netback
What it enables if sustained thesis
Sustained trade surplus -> more dollars come in than go out -> the BCRA accumulates without issuing money -> it backs the exchange-rate stability and the free availability that RIGI promises (Reserves pillar: 21,876 M Nov-2023 -> 48,935 M as of 28-Jul-2026). R2
Energy +42.5% YoY in the half (USD 6,594 M exported, an all-time high for a first half) → Vaca Muerta goes from promise to FX machine → it reinforces the case for the offtake projects (VMOS, LNG) and their entire supplier chain. R1+R5
Genuine foreign exchange (trade, not debt) → the program funds itself → less vulnerable to market mood and IMF disbursements. R2
What we watchAn FX lag that erodes competitiveness and the balance (June's reading - imports +7.3% YoY - suggested the import gap was narrowing, and July reversed it: imports -1.7% YoY and -9.2% in VOLUME, with capital goods among the fallers; year-to-date through July -3.5%); a fall in Brent below Vaca Muerta's breakeven or in soybean prices. The surplus is the external face of the anchor: if it flips, it pressures reserves (R2 · the RIGI promise is kept).
Policies and rules related to this pillar13
We do not attribute this indicator to a single rule. Here we gather the policies and rules we track because they can affect the conditions related to this pillar, each with its status and its source.
Fiscal Package: asset amnesty, moratorium and tax cutsLey 27.743 (Official Gazette Jul 8, 2024)in force
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; pending congressional approval)pending
Industrial export taxes to zero: chemicals, metals and autos export duty-freeDecreto 566/2026 (Official Gazette Jul 1, 2026)in force
PAÍS Tax: it rose, fell and expiredDecreto 29/2023 + Decreto 777/2024 (expiry of Ley 27.541, 12/23/2024)in execution
Comahue dams: all four plants move to private concessionRes. 2124/2025, Ministry of Economy (Official Gazette Dec 30, 2025)in force
Tax reform: the "Súper IVA" arriving in stagesExecutive announcement/design, no law or decree number (not submitted to Congress as of Jun-2026)pending
Crawling peg: from 2% to 1% (later replaced by bands)BCRA statement Jan 16, 2025 (no Communication A cited)in execution
The comprehensive labor reform is now lawLey 27.802 (Official Gazette, Mar 6, 2026, promulgated by Decreto 137/2026)in force
Labor reform regulated: registration with ARCA, digital pay slip and the end of ultra-activityDecreto 407/2026 (Official Gazette, Jun 1, 2026)in force
Labor: a severance fund (FAL) may replace the dismissal paymentDecreto 408/2026 · Resolución General CNV 1167/2026 · Resolución General ARCA 5907/2026in force
Markets linked to this pillar15
These markets belong to sectors whose activity also shows up in relation to this pillar. We show them to connect the aggregate indicator with concrete markets for goods and services that we track in the large projects. Their presence here does not mean this indicator is the cause of that demand.
HSE, well control and safetyNeuquén
Which part of this can reach your company?
The pillar shows the economic context. For a company we run a different cross-check: which projects buy what you make, who buys, when that purchase appears and what you would need to prepare to get in.
Where my company can get inHow often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~20 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-08
Who publishes it
INDEC's Argentine Foreign Trade report (ICA), around the 20th of the following month.
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows