The pillar, in detail
Exports / trade surplus
USD 49,454 M
record half-year · H1 2026 verif · Jun 2026 ↗
USD 49,454 M against 33,474 M inherited (H1-2023): +47.7%
What was promised
Export model: opening, more markets and a sustained trade surplus as a genuine source of foreign exchange.
Where it stands today
Record first half of 2026: USD 49,454 M exported (+24.4% YoY) with a trade balance of +USD 13,923 M — FIVE times the H1-2025 balance (USD 2,762 M); imports 35,531 M (-3.9%). June: exports USD 9,055 M (+24.5% YoY), imports 6,861 M (+7.3%), surplus USD 2,194 M — the 31st consecutive positive month. The monthly record still belongs to May (USD 9,578 M and a +3,450 M balance, figures revised in the June ICA report; the May report had published 9,537/+3,504). The engine is energy: H1 Fuels and Energy exports of USD 6,594 M (+42.5% YoY) — an all-time high for a first half — and a chapter-27 balance in surplus by USD 5,076 M (June: 468 M, weighed down by winter LNG and diesel imports). The BROAD energy balance (Fuels and Energy exports minus fuel-and-lubricant imports — the measure released by the Energy Secretariat) closed June at +USD 611 M and the half at +USD 5,950 M, the largest first half in the series. Fresh provincial origin (June ICA): Neuquén exported USD 819 M in June (98.9% energy) and USD 4,283 M in the half (USD 4,205 M in energy) — ~8.7% of the country's exports. verif · Jun 2026 ↗
The historical series
4,9239,055
Nov-23 → Jun-26 · USD M ↗See the 32 points of the series · between 4,923 and 9,578
| Period | Value USD M |
|---|---|
| Jun-26 | 9,055 |
| May-26 | 9,578 |
| Apr-26 | 8,916 |
| Mar-26 | 8,697 |
| Feb-26 | 5,963 |
| Jan-26 | 7,245 |
| Dec-25 | 7,482 |
| Nov-25 | 8,133 |
| Oct-25 | 7,963 |
| Sep-25 | 8,128 |
| Aug-25 | 7,903 |
| Jul-25 | 7,761 |
| Jun-25 | 7,275 |
| May-25 | 7,095 |
| Apr-25 | 6,674 |
| Mar-25 | 6,642 |
| Feb-25 | 6,140 |
| Jan-25 | 5,915 |
| Dec-24 | 7,049 |
| Nov-24 | 6,526 |
| Oct-24 | 7,032 |
| Sep-24 | 6,953 |
| Aug-24 | 6,758 |
| Jul-24 | 7,186 |
| Jun-24 | 6,567 |
| May-24 | 7,667 |
| Apr-24 | 6,511 |
| Mar-24 | 6,492 |
| Feb-24 | 5,550 |
| Jan-24 | 5,412 |
| Dec-23 | 5,273 |
| Nov-23 | 4,923 |
How it is computed: the source figure, untransformed
What it is measured against1
The export inheritance, measured H1 against H1: USD 33,474 M exported in the first half of 2023 against 49,454 M in H1-2026, i.e. +47.7%. ⚠️ The comparison is made HALF-YEAR against HALF-YEAR on purpose: the November 2023 point this axis already publishes in its sparkline is 4,923 M and is MONTHLY — setting it against the half-year total would give an arc of ×10 that means nothing. The six months, from the official series: January 4,925.3 · February 5,239.2 · March 5,734.6 · April 5,898.2 · May 6,261.9 · June 5,414.9. verif · Jun 2023 ↗
Our reading
Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
What it enables if sustained thesis
Sustained trade surplus -> more dollars come in than go out -> the BCRA accumulates without issuing money -> it backs the exchange-rate stability and the free availability that RIGI promises (Reserves pillar: 21,876 M Nov-2023 -> 48,935 M as of 28-Jul-2026). R2
Energy +42.5% YoY in the half (USD 6,594 M exported, an all-time high for a first half) → Vaca Muerta goes from promise to FX machine → it reinforces the case for the offtake projects (VMOS, LNG) and their entire supplier chain. R1+R5
Genuine foreign exchange (trade, not debt) → the program funds itself → less vulnerable to market mood and IMF disbursements. R2
What we watchAn FX lag that erodes competitiveness and the balance (June's reading - imports +7.3% YoY - suggested the import gap was narrowing, and July reversed it: imports -1.7% YoY and -9.2% in VOLUME, with capital goods among the fallers; year-to-date through July -3.5%); a fall in Brent below Vaca Muerta's breakeven or in soybean prices. The surplus is the external face of the anchor: if it flips, it pressures reserves (R2 · the RIGI promise is kept).
The rules that rest on the same inference13
The rule is R5 · better export netback. These rules declare it too: they push in the direction this axis measures. Another 1 axes of the dashboard rest on it.
Fiscal Package: asset declaration, moratorium and tax cutsLaw 27.743 (Official Gazette Jul 8, 2024)in force
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; submitted to Congress)pending
Industrial export taxes to zero: chemicals, metals and autos export duty-freeDecree 566/2026 (Official Gazette Jul 1, 2026)in force
PAÍS Tax: it rose, fell and expiredDecree 29/2023 + Decree 777/2024 (expiry of Law 27.541, 12/23/2024)in execution
The Comahue returns to private hands: 4 dams awarded in concessionRes. 2124/2025, Ministry of Economy (Official Gazette Dec 30, 2025)in force
Tax reform: the "Super VAT" that comes in installmentsExecutive announcement/design, no law or decree number (not submitted to Congress as of Jun-2026)pending
Crawling peg: from 2% to 1% (later superseded by bands)BCRA statement Jan 16, 2025 (no Communication A cited)in execution
The comprehensive labor reform is now lawLaw 27,802 (Official Gazette, Mar 6, 2026, promulgated by Decree 137/2026)in force
The labor reform lands: transparent pay slip, ARCA and the end of ultra-activityDecree 407/2026 (Official Gazette, Jun 1, 2026)in force
The markets that exist because of this same inference15
Supplier niches that declare this same inference rule: this is the demand that opens up if this pillar holds.
HSE, well control and safetyNeuquén
How often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~20 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-06
Who publishes it
INDEC's Argentine Foreign Trade report (ICA), around the 20th of the following month.
Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
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Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
How to read the seals → verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf not sufficiently backed · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading