The pillar, in detail
Fiscal anchor
0.2%
accumulated financial surplus · first 8 months of 2026 (% of GDP) verif Aug 2026 ↗
the primary balance went from an inherited -2.9% (2023) to ~+1.1%
Pillar statusON TRACKTrend▬ stable
The latest figure meets the promise we measure on this pillar.
What was promised
A sustained fiscal balance (zero deficit or surplus), stated as the anchor of the programme: «there is no money».
Where it stands today
In August 2026 the National Public Sector closed in surplus again on both measures: a primary balance of ARS 1,990,322 million and a financial balance of ARS 635,529 million, after paying ARS 1,354,793 M in interest. Total revenue ARS 15,027,157 M (+32.2% y/y) and primary spending ARS 13,036,836 M (+32.9% y/y): this month they grew at the same pace, and part of the rise in spending is energy subsidies, which the Ministry itself attributes to «higher power-generation costs resulting from the crisis in the Middle East». Over the eight accumulated months the financial surplus stands «at around 0.2% of GDP» and the primary «at approximately 1.1% of GDP» (IMF 2026 target: 1.4% of GDP primary). The accumulated figure keeps rising: it was 0.1% financial and 0.9% primary through July. Against the inheritance, the primary balance went from a deficit of 2.9% of GDP in 2023 to a surplus. verif Aug 2026 ↗
The historical series
What it is measured against1
The fiscal inheritance, in the primary source for the 2023 close: «During 2023 the National Public Sector (SPN) posted a primary deficit of $5,483,305.3 million (-2.9% of GDP)», with debt interest net of intra-public-sector holdings of $3,253,832 M, «determining a financial deficit of $8,737,137» million. ⚠️ The release does NOT express the financial deficit as a % of GDP: only the primary one. That is why the arc published in the title compares primary against primary. verif Dec 2023 ↗
The comparison, on its own, does not attribute the change to any particular policy.
Our reading
Trend▬ stable (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
Rule we apply lowers country risk
What it enables if sustained thesis
A sustained surplus for two years → the market stops treating it as an exception and prices it in → country risk has already compressed from 2,601 (the inherited chaos, Nov-2023) to ~437 bps (Country-risk pillar, its floor of 402 on Jul 10, 2026, the lowest since April 2018) → Argentina again finances itself at normal-country rates. R1
With no deficit there is no printing to finance the Treasury → disinflation becomes structural, not transitory (Disinflation pillar: from the 25.5% monthly of the late-2023 price realignment to 1.9%). R1+R3
For the investor: the fiscal anchor is RIGI's political collateral — the 30-year stability the regime signs is only credible with the accounts in order. R1+R2
What we watchThe anchor is measured on the CUMULATIVE figure, not on the month: June closed with a financial deficit on two calendar effects —the personal income tax payment pushed to July and the year-end bonus for pensioners— and the half-year still closes in surplus. The alert would be that monthly deficit turning persistent and flipping the cumulative figure, or monetary financing of the Treasury coming back — neither is in the data today. The risk vector is external: Congress voting spending without funding, over the vetoes.
Policies and rules related to this pillar6
We do not attribute this indicator to a single rule. Here we gather the policies and rules we track because they can affect the conditions related to this pillar, each with its status and its source.
Fiscal anchor: surplus two years in a rowExecutive execution policy on the extended budget (Decreto 1131/2024)in force
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; pending congressional approval)pending
The "lock on the State": fiscal balance by lawLey 27.798 (2026 Budget), art. 1 — in force; the permanent "lock on the State" still a billpending
End of segmentation: energy subsidies are targeted at those who need themDecreto 943/2025 (Official Gazette, Jan 2, 2026)in force
Multilateral-guaranteed debt under New York law: the Treasury refinances more cheaplyDecreto 478/2026 (Official Gazette Jun 22, 2026)in force
Markets linked to this pillar4
These markets belong to sectors whose activity also shows up in relation to this pillar. We show them to connect the aggregate indicator with concrete markets for goods and services that we track in the large projects. Their presence here does not mean this indicator is the cause of that demand.
Which part of this can reach your company?
The pillar shows the economic context. For a company we run a different cross-check: which projects buy what you make, who buys, when that purchase appears and what you would need to prepare to get in.
Where my company can get inHow often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~20 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-08
Who publishes it
The SPN balance published by the Ministry of Economy, in the middle of the following month.
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows