The pillar, in detail
Disinflation
2.1%
monthly CPI · July 2026 · 33.8% YoY verif · Jul 2026 ↗
inherited 12.8% monthly (Nov-2023), peak 25.5% (Dec-2023)
What was promised
Sustained fall in inflation via the end of money printing (monetary anchor).
Where it stands today
CPI July 2026: 2.1% monthly, 33.8% YoY, 19.3% accumulated in the year. Core 1.8% (rents and cultural services, offset by the drop in building fees); seasonal 4.5% (vegetables, tour packages and lodging); regulated 2.1% (public transport, private health plans, electricity). Goods +1.6% and services +3.1% in the month. June had marked 1.9% monthly and 33.5% YoY. verif · Jul 2026 ↗
The historical series
12.8%2.1%
Nov-23 → Jul-26 · % monthly ↗See the 33 points of the series · between 1.5% and 25.5%
| Period | Value % monthly |
|---|---|
| Jul-26 | 2.1 |
| Jun-26 | 1.9 |
| May-26 | 2.1 |
| Apr-26 | 2.6 |
| Mar-26 | 3.4 |
| Feb-26 | 2.9 |
| Jan-26 | 2.9 |
| Dec-25 | 2.8 |
| Nov-25 | 2.5 |
| Oct-25 | 2.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.1 |
| Aug-25 | 1.9 |
| Jul-25 | 1.9 |
| Jun-25 | 1.6 |
| May-25 | 1.5 |
| Apr-25 | 2.8 |
| Mar-25 | 3.7 |
| Feb-25 | 2.4 |
| Jan-25 | 2.2 |
| Dec-24 | 2.7 |
| Nov-24 | 2.4 |
| Oct-24 | 2.7 |
| Sep-24 | 3.5 |
| Aug-24 | 4.2 |
| Jul-24 | 4 |
| Jun-24 | 4.6 |
| May-24 | 4.2 |
| Apr-24 | 8.8 |
| Mar-24 | 11 |
| Feb-24 | 13.2 |
| Jan-24 | 20.6 |
| Dec-23 | 25.5 |
| Nov-23 | 12.8 |
How it is computed: change against the previous month, on INDEC's index
What it is measured against4
The inflation inheritance, read in our own monthly CPI series (INDEC): November 2023 printed 12.8% monthly and December 2023 printed 25.5%, the peak of the price realignment. BOTH are kept: Nov-2023 is the strict inheritance but came with repressed prices and capital controls, so on its own it understates the starting point; the December peak is that same phenomenon once prices were allowed to realign. verif · Dec 2023 ↗
2015, the year critics use as a yardstick: the City of Buenos Aires CPI (IPCBA) closed December 2015 at 26.9% year on year, with 3.9% in December alone and an average of 1.9% a month between January and November. The previous year had been 38.0%. verif · Dec 2015 ↗
2016, the following year: that same IPCBA printed 41.0% year on year in December 2016, with Housing, water, electricity and other fuels up 71.2% YoY and Transport up 42.1%. That is the bill for realigning utility tariffs and the exchange rate that 2015 — an election year, with currency controls — had kept held down. verif · Dec 2016 ↗
Today's comparable point on THAT same index: IPCBA July 2026, 33.2% year on year, 2.9% monthly and 19.4% accumulated in the year. Against 2015 (26.9%) today is 1.2 times, not double; against the average of the two years around that snapshot (26.9% and 41.0% = 33.8% annual equivalent) it is practically the same, but that figure was held up by currency controls and frozen tariffs. verif · Jul 2026 ↗
Our reading
Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
What it enables if sustained thesis
CPI falling toward 1-2% monthly → long contracts and 10-year economic calculation return → long-term investment (pipelines, LNG, plants) becomes financeable. R3
Disinflation + positive real rates -> credit revives: private loans are growing again in real terms, and since the inheritance the real stock has nearly doubled (Credit axis) -> mortgages and SME working capital, the channel that reaches ordinary people. R3
With core (1.6%) running below the headline index, convergence enables re-monetization: more pesos demanded without inflation = more credit without printing. R3
What we watchAn inflation flare-up or a stalling of the deceleration. Still ~33% YoY: the pillar is heading the right way but is not 'met'.
The rules that rest on the same inference12
The rule is R3 · stability → long-term investment. These rules declare it too: they push in the direction this axis measures. Another 5 axes of the dashboard rest on it.
Mercosur–EU ratified: 450 million consumers open up to agriculture and industryLaw 27,800 (Official Gazette Feb 26, 2026); provisional application from May 1, 2026in force
Super RIGI: data centers, AI and semiconductorsFirst-round approval in the Chamber of Deputies (Jun-2026), in the Senatepending
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; submitted to Congress)pending
The State reorders the trunk gas pipelines and forces firm transportation contracts to be redrawnRes. SE 66/2026 (Official Gazette, Mar 13, 2026) + Res. ENARGAS 409/2026in execution
First energy privatization closed: Transener goes private for USD 356 MRes. 673/2026 MECON (Official Gazette, May 12, 2026) + Res. 130/2026 ENReGEin execution
Waterway: a 25-year private concessionRes. 36/2026 ANPYN (award Jun 19, 2026, Jan de Nul-Servimagnus)in execution
Pact of May: the roadmap signed with the provincesAct of May (declaration, no law no.) + Council of May by Decree 617/2024pending
The markets that exist because of this same inference7
Supplier niches that declare this same inference rule: this is the demand that opens up if this pillar holds.
How often it is updated
Frequency
monthly
Lag
~14 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-07
Who publishes it
INDEC's CPI, with a calendar published 12 months ahead: around the 12th to 14th of the following month.
Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
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Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
How to read the seals → verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf not sufficiently backed · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading