The pillar, in detail

Real wages

~+2.0%

real wage · May 2026 estim · May 2026

since Nov-2023 it is up +3.1% (as of April), after a trough of -16.7%

IN PROGRESS▲ improving stability → long-term investment

What was promised

That disinflation restores purchasing power: wages beating prices in a sustained way.

Where it stands today

Wages beat inflation again in May, but by less: INDEC's wage index +35.9% YoY (+2.2% monthly, +15.2% accumulated since December 2025) against a CPI of +33.2% YoY -> real wage ~+2.0% YoY estim the cross is our own calculation, INDEC does not publish a real wage series, against ~+3.4% in April. The composition is the part that cannot be left out: the pull comes from unregistered private employment (+66.3% YoY, a volatile series with a five-month methodological lag that INDEC itself declares), while registered private (+29.3%) and public (+27.4%) run below the YoY CPI — that is, formal wage earners, who account for 80% of the index, are still losing against inflation in the year-on-year comparison. estim · May 2026

The historical series

% YoY · wage index by sector · May 2026 ↗

What it is measured against1

The wage inheritance and the trough that followed, in a single line: against November 2023, the real wage in April 2026 is +3.1% — INDEC's wage index multiplied by 4.16 and the CPI by 4.04 over the same stretch — and along the way it hit a floor of -16.7% in March 2024. ⚠️ Both ends go together on purpose: publishing only the +3.1% hides the cost of the transition, and publishing only the trough hides the recovery. Indices read: wages 2,157.73 (Nov-2023) and 8,978.10 (Apr-2026); CPI 2,816.06 and 11,363.09. estim · Nov 2023

Our reading

Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)

What it enables if sustained thesis

The real wage turned positive (~+3.4% YoY in April) after the tie of prior months → the program's next phase is played here: if it holds 2-3 points a year, consumption and poverty improve without touching the fiscal anchor. R3

Wages that gain with productivity and not with printing → a sustainable improvement: the difference between this cycle and the mirages of 2011 and 2017. R3+R1

The formal salaried worker does not feel it yet: registered private +29.3% YoY, below CPI → when formal wage deals cross the line, the program closes its social front (connects with the Employment and Poverty pillars). R3

What we watchReal wages falling with low inflation = the adjustment falling on income → social and political cost (connects with the employment pillar, the weak flank). Watch the INDEC wage index and wage deals vs CPI.

The rules that rest on the same inference12

The rule is R3 · stability → long-term investment. These rules declare it too: they push in the direction this axis measures. Another 5 axes of the dashboard rest on it.

Mercosur–EU ratified: 450 million consumers open up to agriculture and industryLaw 27,800 (Official Gazette Feb 26, 2026); provisional application from May 1, 2026in force

RIGI: more time and more sectorsDecree 105/2026in force

RIGI: what paperwork you have to file afterwardsDecree 749/2024in force

Super RIGI: data centers, AI and semiconductorsFirst-round approval in the Chamber of Deputies (Jun-2026), in the Senatepending

Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; submitted to Congress)pending

The State reorders the trunk gas pipelines and forces firm transportation contracts to be redrawnRes. SE 66/2026 (Official Gazette, Mar 13, 2026) + Res. ENARGAS 409/2026in execution

Renewables: from state subsidy to private contractRes. SE 400/2025 + DNU 70/2023 (art. 176)in force

First energy privatization closed: Transener goes private for USD 356 MRes. 673/2026 MECON (Official Gazette, May 12, 2026) + Res. 130/2026 ENReGEin execution

Waterway: a 25-year private concessionRes. 36/2026 ANPYN (award Jun 19, 2026, Jan de Nul-Servimagnus)in execution

Pact of May: the roadmap signed with the provincesAct of May (declaration, no law no.) + Council of May by Decree 617/2024pending

Public order: end of unpunished road blockadesResolution 943/2023 (Ministry of Security)in force

The RIGI reaches the railwaysDecree 748/2026in force

The markets that exist because of this same inference7

Supplier niches that declare this same inference rule: this is the demand that opens up if this pillar holds.

Pipeline integrity and inspectionNeuquén

Midstream, storage and GyP channel servicesNeuquén

Port logistics and project cargo transport (Puerto San Antonio Este)Río Negro

Certified metalworking shop for the corridor (Alto Valle)Río Negro

Industrial O&M of the Punta Colorada terminal, tanks and monobuoysRío Negro

Maritime and offshore services of the Golfo San MatíasRío Negro

Energy and transmission for the copper wave (+ mining solar, San Juan)

How often it is updated

Frequency

monthly

Lag

~55 days after the period closes

Latest period published

2026-05

Who publishes it

INDEC's wage index deflated by CPI: both are monthly and the index comes out with a ~2-month lag.

Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst

Credentials and track record →