The pillar, in detail

Security / public order

3.6

homicides per 100,000 inhab. · 2025 verif · 2025 ↗

from 4.4 inherited (2023) to 3.6: all-time low

What was promised

Order and toughness against crime: 'those who do it, pay for it'. A sustained fall in homicides and crime (pillar 7 of the program).

Where it stands today

Intentional homicide rate of 3.6 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2025 (1,676 victims; 1,613 offences, rate 3.5): the lowest in the SNIC historical series for the second year running, with the rate falling from 4.4 in 2023 to 3.9 in 2024 and 3.6 in 2025. Robberies: from 464,318 offences in 2024 to 360,946 in 2025, -22.3% (the rate falls 1002.8 -> 778.1, -22.4%). In the opposite direction, and the report publishes it too: robberies aggravated by resulting injury and/or death rise from 5,709 to 8,293 offences, +45.3% (rate 12.3 -> 17.9, +45.0%). Femicides, according to the Supreme Court's judicial registry —a different agency, not SNIC—: 200 direct victims in 2025 against 228 in 2024, -12.3%. verif · 2025 ↗

External endorsement: The UNODC awarded Argentina grade A for Statistical Quality (2026), the highest rating for criminal-information systems — 124 quality requirements reviewed across 1,438,190 records from the 24 provincial databases. verif · 2026 ↗

The historical series

per 100k ↗

What it is measured against1

The security inheritance: an intentional homicide rate of 4.4 per 100,000 inhabitants in 2023, the last full year before this administration. It is the starting point of the arc this axis publishes —4.4 (2023) → 3.9 (2024) → 3.6 (2025)— and the series is ANNUAL, so the arc runs year to year and not from a November month as in the monthly axes. verif · 2023 ↗

Our reading

Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)

What it enables if sustained thesis

Homicides at an all-time low → the physical-risk premium that operations in Argentina used to pay (insurance, logistics, expatriates) falls → one less invisible cost to invest. R6

Sustained public order → social predictability for decades-long projects (an LNG plant is not built amid blockades) → it complements RIGI's legal security. R6+R2

Rosario as a test: if the State recovers the monopoly on force where it had lost it, the signal counts for the whole map. R6

What we watchA resurgence of drug crime (Rosario is the test) or a growing divergence between the SNIC and the judicial registries/observatories (data quality). Legal and physical security is a condition of the thesis: a deterioration raises the cost of insurance, logistics and talent in the projects.

The rules that rest on the same inference

None of the rules we have curated declares R6 as its inference rule. That is a gap in our coverage, and we say so: it does not mean none exist.

How often it is updated

Frequency

annual

Lag

~180 days after the period closes

Latest period published

2025

Who publishes it

Intentional homicides from the Ministry of Security: the year closes in the middle of the next one.

Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst

Credentials and track record →