Where to get in as the capital arrives
We map the projects, who is driving them, who buys and where opportunities appear to invest, supply and work.
Every figure says whether it is confirmed, still under review, and where it comes from.
See the provinces ↓See where my company can get in →
A chamber, cluster, agency or province? Entry for institutions →
Audited RIGI portfolio
32
23 approved · 9 awaiting a decision
Program dashboard
16
of 18 pillars with an official primary source
Companies mapped
79
operators and service companies
Opportunities
74
sized in USD, each with its gap
RIGI portfolio23 approved · 9 awaiting a decision
USD 151,375 M
RIGI portfolio23 approved · 9 awaiting a decision
USD 151,375 MAll 23 approved projects nationwide have their resolution published in the Official Gazette, and they are the 23 in this portfolio — USD 49,766 M, plus Vaca Muerta’s big filed applications. The amount is each project’s total investment, not just the computable part. verif Sep 24, 2026 ↗
★ The 6 largest in the portfolio
Argentina LNG (YPF, Eni and XRG)USD 51,000 MsubmittedYPF 'LLL Oil' (shale-oil mega-development)USD 25,000 MsubmittedPluspetrol - Bajo del Choique / La InvernadaUSD 12,400 MsubmittedVicuña (Josemaría + Filo del Sol) — copper, gold and silverUSD 9,700 MapprovedEl Pachón - copper, silver and molybdenum (Glencore)USD 9,500 MsubmittedTecpetrol - Los Toldos II EsteUSD 6,400 Msubmitted
The provinces · choose your view
RIGI money, province by provinceaudited portfolio · every amount with its primary source
151,375USD M
Río Negro 38.1%Neuquén 34.1%Rest 27.8%
Same data, three ways in: invest, supply or work.
#ProvinceShareUSD MProjectsOpportunitiesTake part
5 more provinces with RIGI projects and no page of their own yetBuenos Aires · Jujuy · Mendoza · La Pampa · Santa Fe · USD 7,378 M across the 5
6Buenos Aires⏳ coming soonUSD M4,596Projects4Opportunities—
7Jujuy⏳ coming soonUSD M1,167Projects1Opportunities—
8Mendoza⏳ coming soonUSD M825Projects2Opportunities—
9La Pampa⏳ coming soonUSD M513Projects1Opportunities—
10Santa Fe⏳ coming soonUSD M277Projects1Opportunities—
Total100%
What this table covers · 13 jurisdictions with no registered projects and 24 projects not yet broken down by province
13 jurisdictions have no RIGI projects in the current portfolio
did NOT join RIGI: Buenos Aires, Formosa, La Pampa, La Rioja, Santiago del Estero — national RIGI projects still operate there, with national benefits but not the provincial ones
⏳ membership pending: Tierra del Fuego · 18 of 24 jurisdictions have already joined
The 24 under review worth USD 159,480 M are not in this table: the official portal does not yet break them down by province. It does publish what they are: oil and gas 14, mining 6, power generation 3, technology 1, steel 0, infrastructure 0. verif Sep 24, 2026 ↗
Program compliance dashboard · 14 of those 18 are on track
The detail of each pillar
18 pillars · each with its series, its source and its own page
The detail of each pillar
18 pillars · each with its series, its source and its own pageHow to read the mini-series: they start in November 2023, the month before the inauguration: the first number is the inherited starting point. When that start was an artificial value — the dollar held down by the currency controls, repressed inflation — we say so on the card, we do not count it as merit.
How we read the status: on track, the latest figure meets the promise; in progress, it does not meet the promise yet and is moving towards it; at risk, it does not meet the promise yet and is moving away from it.
Fiscal anchorON TRACKR1
0.2%
accumulated financial surplus · first 8 months of 2026 (% of GDP) verif Aug 2026 ↗
the primary balance went from an inherited -2.9% (2023) to ~+1.1%
DisinflationIN PROGRESSR3
1.7%
monthly CPI · August 2026 · 33.5% YoY verif Aug 2026 ↗
inherited 12.8% monthly (Nov-2023), peak 25.5% (Dec-2023)
Country risk / cost of capitalON TRACKR1
636 bps
EMBI at 1-Oct · the highest close since 30-Mar · floor of 402 on 10-Jul (lowest since April 2018) prob Oct 1, 2026 ↗
from an inherited 2,601 (Nov-2023): -76%
BCRA reservesON TRACKR2
USD 46,092 M
gross as of Sep 30, 2026 (quarter close) · +2,987 M in 2026 · June target met verif Sep 30, 2026 ↗
Deregulation and openingON TRACKR4
17,115
articles amended or repealed · official counter, Aug-2026 verif Aug 2026 ↗
Investment (RIGI)ON TRACKR2
23
approved RIGI projects · USD 49,766 M (official spreadsheet, 24-Sep-2026) verif Sep 24, 2026 ↗
Energy production (Vaca Muerta)ON TRACKR5
678,714
bbl/d of oil in Neuquén · August 2026, record high verif Aug 2026 ↗
PovertyON TRACKR3
32.3%
poverty H1-2026 · +4.1 points against the previous half, no significant change against H1-2025 (31.6%) verif 2026-S1 ↗
peak of 52.9% (H1-2024), 41.7% inherited
EmploymentAT RISKR4
-1.9%
private employment YoY · Jun-2026 verif Jun 2026 ↗
since the inheritance (Nov-2023) it adds up to -289,900 jobs: -4.5%
Exports / trade surplusON TRACKR5
USD 67,248 M
record 8-month run · Jan-Aug 2026 · USD 67,248 M, +21.4% YoY · surplus +USD 18,249 M verif Aug 2026 ↗
Security / public orderON TRACKR6
3.6
homicides per 100,000 inhab. · 2025 verif 2025 ↗
from 4.4 inherited (2023) to 3.6: all-time low
FX regime / exit from currency controlsON TRACKR2
$1,523.23
wholesale FX A3500 as of Oct 1, 2026 · gap ~0 verif Oct 1, 2026 ↗
Credit to the private sectorON TRACKR3
$148.6 B
private loans as of Sep 29, 2026 verif Sep 29, 2026 ↗
since the inheritance (Nov-2023) the real stock nearly doubles: +91.1%
Economic activity (EMAE)ON TRACKR3
+2.0%
Q2-2026 GDP · +2.0% year-on-year, but -0.6% against the previous quarter verif 2026-T2 ↗
the Jul-2026 monthly activity index was -1.4% YoY and -2.9% against June, inherited -1.1% (Nov-2023)
Real wagesIN PROGRESSR3
~+1.8%
real wages · July 2026 estim Jul 2026
since Nov-2023 up +4.9%, after a trough of -16.7%
Size of the StateON TRACKR1
3.396 M
public jobs · Jun-2026 verif Jun 2026 ↗
since the inheritance (Nov-2023) it adds up to -88,400 jobs: -2.5%
Tax burden / tax cutsON TRACKR4
-10.5%
Aug-2026 tax collection · +33.5% YoY nominal, flat against inflation · the 12-month real series adds up to -10.5%: that is ARS 28.3 trillion that stopped leaving Argentine pockets estim Jul 2026
Private-credit delinquencyAT RISKR3
7.70%
of the private loan portfolio was irregular in Jul-2026 verif Jul 2026 ↗
it was 2.65% in Nov-2023
The program, verified · claim by claim, against the official source
What we could check · since the method started
2 turned out false.
We verified 348 of the 360 claims the government made about its own record, one by one, against its official source.
How we work the data →What went into the count
82official publications we were able to contrast, May 8 to Oct 2
20weekly briefings by the spokesman · with no cherry-picking
62press conferences, interviews and one-off announcements
1 in 8of the 142 claims from the last 90 days was about exports
The latest briefing and the full archive: 109 recordsHow to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows
Our read
Stabilisation is starting to feed through into investment and activity.
Disinflation and real wages are still under way; private employment and credit delinquency are the two that do not follow today. That mix opens different openings depending on the province and the sector.
The dashboard, axis by axis →What backs it
636 pbcountry risk · it was 2,601 bp in Nov 2023 prob Oct 1, 2026 ↗
+91,1%real private credit · Nov 2023 to Jul 2026 estim
What does not follow
-1,9%private employment, year on year verif Jun 2026 ↗
7,70%private loan-book delinquency · it was 2.65% in Nov 2023 verif Jul 2026 ↗
Convergence thesis
10 theses · how the pieces converge
Convergence thesis
10 theses · how the pieces convergeWhen several pieces of the data —reforms, RIGI, opportunities— push in the same direction, we read them as a single story. It is our reading (thesis seal), not a data point: the status of each one is derived from how many of its pieces are already in force.
The Neuquén local-content advantage: the law pays no premium, it gets you the call4/4 solid pieces · ready to executethesis opening and deregulation + cheaper to respond: investing takes time, held-back supply shows up at once
The full case, in Neuquén
The economy Vaca Muerta pulls along: a wage five times higher becomes local demandthesis formingthesis high wages → local non-tradable boom + without controls, supply responds to the boom + cheap capital → jobs show up downstream
The full case, in Neuquén
See the other 8 theses
Financing closed before the election: pre-funding separates investment decisions from the political cycle1/1 solid pieces · ready to executethesis lowers country risk + confirms the course
Substitution of federal financing: works migrate from discretionary transfers to credit taken by the provinces and private concessions2/3 solid pieces · under waythesis lowers country risk + stability → long-term investment
Reallocation, not recession: the national average is a poor thermometer for the take-offthesis formingthesis opening and deregulation + better export netback
The full case, in Neuquén
The Río Negro rule: 60% of the corridor to the local supplier, with an 8-point window6/6 solid pieces · ready to executethesis federal-provincial tension + the RIGI promise is kept + opening and deregulation + the asset leaves demand that does not expire
The full case, in Río Negro
Competitive federalism: with no discretionary federal purse and no tax possible on RIGI projects, governors compete for business location — provincial risk turns around and works in your favor4/4 solid pieces · ready to executethesis lowers country risk + federal-provincial tension + the RIGI promise is kept
Vaca Muerta's gas is limited by pipeline capacity, not by export price: the pipe is what holds it back, and it lands in 2027-20283/3 solid pieces · ready to executethesis the bottleneck moves to transport + stability → long-term investment + better export netback
Durable consumption is coming back through the channel the program reopened — credit — and that is why looking only at formal wages understates the recoverythesis formingthesis stability → long-term investment + cheap capital → jobs show up downstream
Anyone sizing demand for a durable-goods business — a car dealership, appliances, building materials, machinery — from the year-on-year change in formal wages will underestimate it and will arrive late. The indicator that leads that demand is credit and its cost, not the wage. And for us there is a method consequence: reading vehicle registrations as proof of the R8-R9 spillover mixes two different channels — income and financing — and muddles the diagnosis of why what is growing is growing.
When the works are bigger than the place, what sells is service to the works, and it is sold from the provincial capital2/3 solid pieces · under waythesis each phase buys something different + high wages → local non-tradable boom
Economic reforms and deregulation
190 in force · 21 in execution · 16 pending227 rules of the programme, dated and comparable. A rule enters once its text has been published in the Boletín Oficial: an announcement is not enough. Here are the key ones and the split by subject; the full catalogue lives on its own page.
★ Key reforms for investment · all in force
Ley Bases: the RIGI is bornMega-DNU 70/2023: repeals the Rentals, Shelves and Supply lawsFiscal Package: asset amnesty, moratorium and tax cutsFiscal anchor: surplus two years in a rowCurrency controls: exit for individuals and floating bandsImports: prior approval to bring in goods is eliminatedDividends abroad: transfers return for non-residentsEnergy: free export of hydrocarbons and gasThe comprehensive labor reform is now law
The company analysis
Where your company can sell inside the investment that is arriving
Which projects what you make fits into, when they buy, from whom and what to get ready first. Two pages with where to start and what to do this month; behind them, the full report with every figure and its source.
First step
Tell us what your company does
Your website is enough to start. We look at what the company does and reply with the projects and the buyers worth looking at.
Open the report ↗A real analysis · a real company, open in full →
This is not financial advice. We publish verifiable data and our reading, labeled as thesis.