The pillar, in detail
Poverty
32.3%
poverty H1-2026 · +4.1 points against the previous half, no significant change against H1-2025 (31.6%) verif 2026-S1 ↗
peak of 52.9% (H1-2024), 41.7% inherited
Pillar statusON TRACKTrend▼ worsening
The latest figure meets the promise we measure on this pillar.
What was promised
Reduce poverty through stabilisation and growth, not through spending or inflation.
Where it stands today
32.3% of people in the 1st half of 2026 (9.7 M people; 24.4% of households; extreme poverty 7.5% of people). Up 4.1 points in people (3.4 in households) against the 2nd half of 2025. Against the same half of the previous year (31.6%), INDEC reports no significant change: the confidence intervals of the two halves are 30.1-33.1 and 30.8-33.7. The cause INDEC gives: in the half, per capita family income rose 11.5%, below the baskets (food +21.4%, total +19.6%). FULL ARC (INDEC, people): 41.7% inherited (H2-2023) → 52.9% at the peak (H1-2024, with inherited inflation crystallizing after the Dec-2023 devaluation) → 38.1% (H2-2024) → 31.6% (H1-2025) → 28.2% (H2-2025) → 32.3% (H1-2026). Against the peak: -20.6 points; against the inheritance: -9.4 points. verif 2026-S1 ↗
The historical series
Our reading
Trend▼ worsening (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
Rule we apply stability → long-term investment
What it enables if sustained thesis
Poverty 9.4 points below the inheritance WITH inflation falling → it validates the program's central mechanism (inflation was the most regressive tax) → H1-2026 marks the limit: when the baskets rise faster than income, poverty rises again, so the improvement depends on disinflation continuing. R3+R6
32.3% in H1-2026, with income lagging the basket → base consumption does not yet emerge as a second engine behind tradables: the Activity pillar shows commerce −5.1% and manufacturing −4.6% in July against mining +8.4%. R3
Less poverty through stability and not spending = a fiscally free improvement: it leaves no bill to pay later (the difference from the 2011/2017 cycles). R1+R3
What we watchA poverty rebound if disinflation does not translate into a recovery of real income, or if the recession drags on.
Policies and rules related to this pillar13
We do not attribute this indicator to a single rule. Here we gather the policies and rules we track because they can affect the conditions related to this pillar, each with its status and its source.
Mercosur–EU ratified: 450 million consumers open up to agriculture and industryLey 27.800 (Official Gazette Feb 26, 2026); provisional application from May 1, 2026in force
Enhanced RIGI for new activities: data centers, AI and semiconductors (half-sanctioned)Half-sanction by the Chamber of Deputies (24-Jun-2026) · in the Senate, without a committee report and without a datepending
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; pending congressional approval)pending
Federal Registry of Mining Suppliers: it is public, and does not certify complianceRes. S.M. 84/2022in force
The State reorders the trunk gas pipelines and forces firm transportation contracts to be redrawnRes. SE 66/2026 (Official Gazette, Mar 13, 2026) + Res. ENARGAS 409/2026in execution
First energy privatization closed: Transener goes private for USD 356 MRes. 673/2026 MECON (Official Gazette, May 12, 2026) + Res. 130/2026 ENReGEin execution
Waterway: a 25-year private concessionRes. 36/2026 ANPYN (award) · private management since Sep 10, 2026in execution
Pacto de Mayo: the roadmap signed with the provincesAct of May (declaration, no law no.) + Council of May by Decreto 617/2024pending
Anti-roadblock protocol: federal forces can clear road blockadesResolución 943/2023 (Ministry of Security)in force
Markets linked to this pillar8
These markets belong to sectors whose activity also shows up in relation to this pillar. We show them to connect the aggregate indicator with concrete markets for goods and services that we track in the large projects. Their presence here does not mean this indicator is the cause of that demand.
Which part of this can reach your company?
The pillar shows the economic context. For a company we run a different cross-check: which projects buy what you make, who buys, when that purchase appears and what you would need to prepare to get in.
Where my company can get inHow often it is updated
Frequency
twice a year
Lag
~90 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2026-S1
Who publishes it
INDEC's EPH: one half-year at a time, published ~90 days after it closes.
Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows