The pillar, in detail
Poverty
28.2%
poverty H2-2025 verif · 2025-S2 ↗
from the 52.9% peak (H1-2024) to 28.2%: the lowest since 2018
What was promised
Reduce poverty genuinely (through stabilization and growth, not spending/inflation).
Where it stands today
28.2% of people in the 2nd half of 2025 (8.5 M people; extreme poverty 6.3%). Down 3.4 pp in people (3.1 pp in households) vs the 1st half; the lowest value since early 2018. FULL ARC (INDEC, people): 41.7% inherited (H2-2023) → 52.9% at the peak (H1-2024, with inherited inflation crystallizing after the Dec-2023 devaluation) → 38.1% (H2-2024) → 31.6% (H1-2025) → 28.2% (H2-2025). Against the peak: -24.7 pp. verif · 2025-S2 ↗
The historical series
Our reading
Trend▲ improving (editorial reading, anchored to the data)
What it enables if sustained thesis
Poverty falling WITH inflation falling → it validates the program's central mechanism (inflation was the most regressive tax) → it sustains the political capital to complete the reforms. R3+R6
28.2% and falling -> if the recovery in real income translates into base consumption, the domestic market emerges as a second engine behind tradables. It is not happening yet: the Activity pillar shows mining +15.7% and agriculture +4.6% pulling against manufacturing -5.6% and commerce -4.3% (May-2026). R3
Less poverty through stability and not spending = a fiscally free improvement: it leaves no bill to pay later (the difference from the 2011/2017 cycles). R1+R3
What we watchA poverty rebound if disinflation does not translate into a recovery of real income, or if the recession drags on.
The rules that rest on the same inference12
The rule is R3 · stability → long-term investment. These rules declare it too: they push in the direction this axis measures. Another 5 axes of the dashboard rest on it.
Mercosur–EU ratified: 450 million consumers open up to agriculture and industryLaw 27,800 (Official Gazette Feb 26, 2026); provisional application from May 1, 2026in force
Super RIGI: data centers, AI and semiconductorsFirst-round approval in the Chamber of Deputies (Jun-2026), in the Senatepending
Argentina and the US sign their first trade and investment agreementBilateral agreement signed Feb 5, 2026 (no number; submitted to Congress)pending
The State reorders the trunk gas pipelines and forces firm transportation contracts to be redrawnRes. SE 66/2026 (Official Gazette, Mar 13, 2026) + Res. ENARGAS 409/2026in execution
First energy privatization closed: Transener goes private for USD 356 MRes. 673/2026 MECON (Official Gazette, May 12, 2026) + Res. 130/2026 ENReGEin execution
Waterway: a 25-year private concessionRes. 36/2026 ANPYN (award Jun 19, 2026, Jan de Nul-Servimagnus)in execution
Pact of May: the roadmap signed with the provincesAct of May (declaration, no law no.) + Council of May by Decree 617/2024pending
The markets that exist because of this same inference7
Supplier niches that declare this same inference rule: this is the demand that opens up if this pillar holds.
How often it is updated
Frequency
twice a year
Lag
~90 days after the period closes
Latest period published
2025-S2
Who publishes it
INDEC's EPH: one half-year at a time, published ~90 days after it closes.
Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
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Built on the official source of each figure, with the gaps declared. Back to the program pillars
How to read the seals → verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf not sufficiently backed · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading