Energy and transmission for the copper wave (+ mining solar, San Juan)
The electricity demand brought by the three copper projects exceeds San Juan's entire solar fleet: the 2030 scenario that one of them filed before the regulator adds up to 700 MW of new demand, and the owner of the largest projects 620 MW of operating load and up to 738 MW of peak on its own, in a province that has 501.1 MW of solar in operation. To serve it, the trunk is already settled: on 28 July 2026 the regulator rejected all the objections —those of Barrick, Los Azules, the provincial electricity authority, La Rioja's Secretaría de Energía and the municipalities of Iglesia, Jáchal and Calingasta— and ratified for 25 years Vicuña's priority over 90 % of the existing line's remaining capacity —71 % of its total capacity— and over 90 % of the new line. ⛔ And that same resolution tied up part of the business: operation and maintenance of the two new substations is Transener's by regulation. What remains open is not selling energy over the grid: it is building it — 167 kilometres of 500 kV, 93 of 220, a substation in gas-insulated switchgear, and the cadastral survey and the easement over the 500 kV route.
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What the market is made of
The TAM is activity, not capturable spoils. The 500 kV trunk was applied for by Transener before ENRE and is paid by Vicuña, the Los Azules electrical solution would be integrated by a generator, according to the press, and the already-installed generators share the long-term power purchase agreements: that is captive. Your real gap is what is executed in-territory —the civil works and erection of lines and substations, the 33 kV networks, the works and erection of the solar and the maintenance—: the addressable segment.
~60-75% of the window TAM (USD 200-400 M/yr): the margin of the trunk's main contractor (the large builder that wins the physical works), a generator-integrator's integrated solution, incumbent generators' long-term power purchase agreements, and imported equipment (450-600 MVA transformers, conductors, panels, trackers, inverters). Risk: an integrated foreign builder with financing enlarges the captive share via the law's 'competitive market terms' valve (it already happened in camps: USD 52 M vs 70 M).
USD 100-190 M/yr addressable by a local/national entrant: civil works and erection of lines/substations (35-45% of transmission investment), the works and erection of a solar farm (25-35% of solar investment), 33/132 kV networks, construction power rental and operation and maintenance.
See the full breakdown
USD 10-30 M/yr, and the arithmetic is in plain sight: the entrant does not take the trunk. It takes the 33 kV networks and the site electrification already being tendered —tickets of USD 1 to 8 million, seven bidders in July 2026— and construction power, which the technical study itself sizes at five 2 MW generator sets to start and three more in stage 3, with high-altitude power rental on 12 to 36 month contracts. Adding the two doors gives that band. estim
Who really pays?
The obvious name —“the mine pays for the energy”— hides four distinct flows, and in mining energy you almost never sell to the operator: you sell to whoever builds the trunk or whoever generates the energy. Knowing which is your door is the first step:
Transener filed the expansion before the regulator at Vicuña's request (Resolución ENReGE 330/2026) verif, and Vicuña finances it entirely with its own resources verif. The resolution assigns Transener the operation and maintenance of the new Rodeo and Chaparro substations (article 9) and orders the power-line easement for the certified works to be established in its favour (article 10), but names no operator for the line verif. Who contracts the physical works is not published unconf: that is where the civil-works and erection contractor comes in, probably in a joint venture with a national builder thesis.
The Los Azules Feasibility defines its need for a high-voltage line; the press points to a generator as the integrator that designs, builds and finances it against a long-term power purchase agreement. Whoever it is, you sell to the integrator, not to the mine.
The mine buys the energy from the generator on the term market, and the works, erection and maintenance contractor sells to the generator, not to the mine thesis. There is already a new solar farm with an explicit mining focus: Genneia San Juan Sur, 130 MW and USD 110 M, for large users of the term market verif; and for Los Azules the press names a generator-integrator prob.
Vicuña already tendered the expansion of the 33 kV distribution and the electrical system for Phase 2 of the camp, with seven large bidders, four of them from San Juan (July 2026); here the local entrant sells to the operator with no intermediary. The private-use 220 kV line up to the mine verif is also contracted by Vicuña.
Which projects move this demand
The largest mining project in Argentine history by announced investment, and, according to the operator…
see the project →Leach-based copper cathode project in Calingasta (San Juan). Company/press figures (probable, outside the resolution)…
see the project →Phase 1 of one of Argentina's two largest undeveloped copper deposits, alongside Vicuña: a resource declared by Glencore of ~6,000 Mt @ 0.43% Cu, 2.2 g/t Ag and 130 g/t Mo…
see the project →When the window opens
The cordillera's electrical works are decided by administrative act and executed by private tender. The trunk line permit was resolved on 28 July 2026: 167 kilometres of 500 kV line between Rodeo and Chaparro, a new 450 MVA gas-insulated substation, a 600 MVA bank at Rodeo and the disconnection of the existing line. What is left to award is the physical works, which the resolution does not allocate, plus the 93 kilometres of double-circuit 220 kV line to Josemaría, which the Secretaría de Energía authorised on 5 August 2026 as a private-use line of Vicuña. ⛔ What is no longer open is the maintenance of the two new substations: the resolution assigns it to Transener under the single-operator criterion, up to the outgoing gantries. And there are two more clocks. Los Azules decides its investment in mid-2027 and picks its engineering and construction contractor earlier, in the fourth quarter of 2026. For its power connection it submitted two alternatives in June 2026: entering San Juan's 500 kV grid through the Rodeo and Calingasta substations, or its own 220 kV line from Mendoza prob Tiempo de San Juan, 26 June 2026. And the large project's demand does not end at the 260 MW authorised: its own report projects 220 MW operating in the first stage, 295 in the second and up to 620 MW in total, with a peak of 738. ⚠️ That each step reopens the procedure is our own reading of how the expansion regime works, not something the resolution says. These four numbers say how much is left and who is going to buy it.
See the evidence
See the evidence
See the evidence
The entire ~USD 800 M package (extra-high-voltage line included) hangs on Lundin-BHP's final investment decision, which the company places «as early as the end of 2026»; without a final investment decision there is no contract between the parties to execute. Timing 2026-2027.
It re-sequences the portfolio: El Pachón (no RIGI approval and no environmental report filed —the company aims to file it in the first half of 2027—; 300 MW = 43% estim of the 2030 scenario's demand) is the most exposed thesis.
See the evidence
ENReGE 330/2026 (BO 29-Jul-2026, art. 1) rejected the eleven objections filed: EPRE San Juan, La Rioja's Secretaría de Energía, the municipalities of Calingasta, Jáchal and Iglesia, a private individual, Barrick Exploraciones, Minera Argentina del Sol, Golden Mining (Hualilán), Casposo and Andes Corporación Minera verif full articles read in the Boletín Oficial.
See the evidence
An integrated Chinese main contractor (line + solar + financing) shrinks the local SAM via the 'competitive market terms' valve — a precedent already consummated in camps. Each award 2026-2028.
See the remaining 2 risks
Josemaría's DIA approved (Mar-2026), but its own consultant rates the impact as «severe during operation in the well-field sector» —on the basin from which the water will be drawn— and expects it to ease once desalinated Pacific water comes in prob press on the provincial environmental file; the DEAM primary source was not located.
See the evidence
The works are a 2026-2030 window (peak 2027-2029): whoever enters only to build is left with no market in 2030. The insurance is to chain to the perpetual core (energy sales for 25+ years + operation and maintenance).
The opportunity in depth
The opportunity in depth
Start with the 33 and 132 kV networks and site electrification, which the operator is already tendering —two parallel tenders with seven bidders in July 2026—: it is the SME door and the track record to move up in voltage.
As a subcontractor for civil works and electromechanical erection to the trunk awardee: foundations, service roads and the stringing of a 167 kilometre line that is of the order of four hundred towers by our count. The 93 kilometres of 220 kV up to the mine are a different purchase: the line is for private use and Vicuña contracts it directly. The lesson of the road-works termination rules — the shortcut is a joint venture with a national builder to inherit a high-voltage track record.
⭐ The cadastral survey and the electricity-line easement. Article 10 of the resolution obliges Vicuña to process, for the works in the certificate, the survey plans and the constitution of the administrative electricity-line easement, with its registration in the property registry, in Transener's favour. That is the route of the 500 kV line, some 167 kilometres: land surveying, title management and registration, with very little capital and a great deal of local knowledge.
Chain towards construction power rental and line and solar-asset maintenance, which is the revenue that annualises and survives the end of the construction. The technical study itself sizes it: construction starts with five 2 MW diesel generator sets and in stage 3 three more are added.
When you get paid, and what blocks it
already in
split
The party that APPLIED for the expansion before ENRE (Res. ENReGE 330/2026, art. 3), at Vicuña's request and under the Expansions by Contract between the Parties regime —Vicuña is the one paying—.
See the evidence
According to the press, it designs, builds and finances the Los Azules high-voltage line (~3 years) with a 100% renewable long-term power purchase agreement. The USD 400-500 M investment is our own estimate: there is no published figure estim. In June 2026 the project submitted two alternatives for its connection: entering San Juan's 500 kV grid through the Rodeo and Calingasta substations, or its own 220 kV line from Mendoza prob; no award has been published.
Ullum I-III 82 MW + Sierras de Ullum 78 + Tocota III 60 prob + San Juan Sur 130 MW/USD 110 M verif (the first farm explicitly 'focused on mining'). By scale, it is a natural candidate for Vicuña's long-term power purchase agreements thesis.
One of them operates the 17 MW Cañada Honda solar farm in San Juan, in Sarmiento verif. They compete for mining long-term power purchase agreements thesis; another already proved the binational model (the Libertadores line to Veladero, 25 MW, USD 54 M, 2022).
See the remaining 3 players
State generation / Cuyo trunk transmission (operates the 132 kV network to be reconverted) / distribution.
Natural candidates to be the main contractor for the extra-high-voltage line after the final investment decision. A Chinese builder already operates in the province (the Batidero camp won on price) and does turnkey lines+solar with financing.
Four of the seven bidders in Vicuña's two electrical tenders of July 2026 are from San Juan prob; a local LV/MV base. Among those bidding we did not identify a 500 kV track record.
The jobs it createsConstruction jobs: San Juan Sur alone = 300 peak jobs verif. La lectura completa para el que busca trabajo, en la hoja de este nicho para la gente →
calculate it
The number is our own estimate. The calculation, step by step, is below.
The full calculation, step by step
Concentration Very high in the trunk, and now by regulation: the resolution of 28 July 2026 rejected ALL the objections, eleven in total —the provincial electricity authority, La Rioja's Secretaría de Energía, the three mining municipalities, a private individual and five mining companies, among them Barrick and the operator of Los Azules— and ratified for 25 years Vicuña's priority of use over 90 % of the existing line's remaining capacity —71 % of its total capacity— and over 90 % of the new line and substation. The substance of the complaint, verbatim from one of the objections, is that setting a 25-year term «transforms a priority allocation into a material exclusivity over an already-built strategic corridor». Medium in generation. Open in medium and low voltage, civil works and line maintenance: seven large bidders in the two electrical tenders of July 2026, four of them from San Juan. ⛔ And maintenance of the two new substations is no longer open: it is Transener's, under article 9 of that resolution.
The rule that moves it
This niche's driver is provincial: San Juan's Local Mining Development Law reserves part of mining procurement and employment for the local supplier and turns provincial qualification into a competitive advantage for the electrical contractor.
See the underlying reading
The underlying policy that opens up this demand. It is the same inference declared by the rules and the program pillars pushing in this direction.
the RIGI promise is kept + stability → long-term investmentSee the full legal grounds
Where the number comes from
~USD 165-390 M/yr recurring from 2030, plus USD 15-30 M/yr of operation and maintenance — the revenue that survives the construction wave
See the calculation, the variables and how it was validated
This is the only niche with a perpetual core: when the works end, the sale of energy to the mines is billed for 25 years or more. That recurring engine is built from three variables, and it recalculates just by changing one.
The other face —the electrical works of the 2026-2030 window— is not a formula but a sum of packages: Vicuña's trunk (167 km extra-high-voltage line + two substations + reconversion, ~USD 600-800 M), the Los Azules electrical solution (USD 400-500 M by our own estimate, with no published figure; the press attributes the works to YPF Luz), the new mining solar, the 33 kV networks and El Pachón's start — ~USD 1,400-2,400 M in total, ~USD 350-450 M/yr at the peak. That is the face that fills the market today; the perpetual core is what remains afterwards.
The number rests on a few variables. The formula shows how it moves when each one changes; and each variable carries its freshness seal — how often it is worth revisiting. estim
This niche rests on two acts of State from the Official Gazette, and they do different things. Resolución ENRE 219/2026, of April, called the public hearing, and in its considerandos it transcribes the ~700 MW mining-demand scenario for 2030 that Los Azules filed with its objection: an objector's study, not a projection by the regulator. The one that decided is ENReGE 330/2026, of 28 July, published on the 29th, and it settled four things that rule over this market:
| what the 28 July resolution decided | why it matters here |
|---|---|
| It rejected all the objections —Barrick, Los Azules, the provincial electricity authority, La Rioja's Secretaría de Energía and the municipalities of Iglesia, Jáchal and Calingasta— | the corridor was settled in favour of one party, and the conflict is still alive |
| It ratified for 25 years the priority of use over 90 % of the existing line's remaining capacity, which according to the market administrator is equivalent to 71 % of its total capacity, and over 90 % of the new line and substation verif arts. 4 to 6 and 8 | you do not get in to sell energy over that line |
| It assigned Transener the operation and maintenance of the two new substations, under the single-operator criterion, up to the line exit gantries (art. 9) | ⛔ it closes the door of trunk line maintenance |
| It ordered the cadastral survey and the electricity-line easement to be processed for the works in the certificate, in Transener's favour (art. 10) | ⭐ it opens surveying and registration work along the 500 kV route |
Coverage: the member lists of San Juan's two mining suppliers' chambers —187 members of CASEMI and 40 published by CAPRIMSA— and the seven companies that bid in the operator's two electrical tenders in July 2026 · Sep 14, 2026 · not reviewed: there is no public register of the technical track record of electrical contractors, so it could not be checked what high-voltage track record each of the seven bidders has
How to cite this figure: Despegue (2026). Energy and transmission for the copper wave (+ mining solar, San Juan) · San Juan. despegueargentina.com/en/san-juan/energia-transmision-solar-minero · terms of use
Neighbouring markets2 markets in the same group, from USD 20 to USD 400 M a year
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