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up to date · reviewed Jul 19, 2026
San Juan · Mine core · blasting, explosives and blasthole drilling
The copper wave multiplies it ×7; the explosive is an oligopoly, but the package's services stay openthesis

Blasting, explosives and blasthole drilling (San Juan)

estimated market per year
USD 25-30 M/year today and ~USD 210 M/year
estim · Jul 19, 2026window openemerging arc · Emerging and perpetual: small today, it multiplies when copper enters production (toward 2034) — shielded for decades (Vicuña +70 years).

The rock is blasted for the whole life of the mine — that's why blasting is the most perpetual niche in San Juan's portfolio (Vicuña blasts for +70 years). Today, calibrated for gold, the drill and blast package is small; when the copper porphyries reach steady state, San Juan will blast 450-585 Mt of rock a year that require 100-175 kt of explosive — against the 36,000 t of installed capacity in the province. The explosive itself is a closed oligopoly —Orica, Enaex and Austin Powder cover nearly 100%—, but the jump opens a reachable belt: the blastholes (Hualilán already tendered them apart from the explosive), the dangerous-goods transport and the works of the 2-3 new plants the wave requires.

What the market is made of

The TAM is activity for the whole life of the mine, not capturable spoils. The explosive, the initiation and the integral blasting contract —plus the capex and operation of the 2-3 on-site plants the wave requires— are shielded by the ANMaC barrier within the global oligopoly: that is captive. Your real gap is the package's belt —blasthole drilling, class 1 dangerous-goods transport, the plants' civil works and blast monitoring—: the segment addressable by a local contractor.

CaptiveUSD 152 M · 72%
Addressable (SAM)USD 60 M · 28%
CaptiveUSD 152 M72%non-addressable
the explosive, the initiation and the integral blasting contract ('rock on ground'), plus the capex and operation of the 2-3 on-site emulsion plants — all reserved for the global oligopoly by the ANMaC barrier, the capital and the safety record
Addressable (SAM)USD 60 M28%your market
production blasthole drilling, nitrate and class 1 goods transport, civil works and erection of plants and magazines, vibration monitoring and maintenance of MMUs and drill rigs
Midpoint of the captive/addressable split over the full-wave TAM ~USD 210 M/year (2034+). Our own estimate. estim

What forces someone to pay for this

The underlying policy that opens up this demand. It is the same inference declared by the rules and the program pillars pushing in this direction.

the RIGI promise is kept

Which projects already buy this

This market does not float on its own: concrete megaprojects drive it. These are the ones moving demand for this niche — each with its investment and status.

USD 9,700 M Jun 16, 2026

The largest mining project in Argentine history and the first copper PEELP: it integrates Josemaría and Filo del Sol in the San Juan cordillera…

see the project →
USD 2,672 M Oct 14, 2025

Leach-based copper cathode project in Calingasta (San Juan). Company/press figures (probable, outside the resolution): resources of ~10,900 M lb Cu…

see the project →
USD 9,500 M Aug 18, 2025

Phase 1 of one of Argentina's two largest undeveloped copper deposits, alongside Vicuña: a resource declared by Glencore of ~6,000 Mt @ 0.43% Cu, 2.2 g/t Ag and 130 g/t Mo…

see the project →

Engineering, construction, operation and maintenance of new leach pads (phases 8 and 9) at Veladero Mine, to sustain gold production and exports…

see the project →

Reactivation and deepening of the Gualcamayo gold and silver mine (San Juan): the 'Deep Carbonates (DCP)' project extends the mine life toward the sulfide orebody at depth…

see the project →

The niche in depth

Who splits the market, where you get in, what pays and what could break it.

Who is
already in
Market
split
Orica Argentina35-45% estim

Serves Veladero (supply + outsourced transport of nitrate/high explosives) and Gualcamayo; blasting contract at Hualilán (Oct-2025, with Thor on blastholes); domiciled in San Juan capital

Enaex Argentina (Sigdo Koppers, Chile)25-35% estim

The province's only emulsion plant: Campanario 36,000 t/year verif corporate site Jul 19, 2026; 2014 press said ~65,000, <200 km from the 4 mines; integral service since 2007

Austin Powder Argentina20-30% estim

Operations base inside Veladero verif; its own nitrate from El Galpón, Salta (75,000 t/year) verif corporate site read 18-07-2026; E*STAR detonators

Thor S.A. (Córdoba)dominant in blastholes

24-month blasthole-drilling contract at Hualilán (Nov-2025); Orica's preferred partner; an unbundled model replicable in the porphyries

Fabricaciones Militaresmarginal

Present at the country level (Fundar report); no identified San Juan mining contract

The gap · how to get in

Don't fight for the explosive —the ANMaC authorization, the capital and the safety record shield it within the oligopoly, and the on-site plants are built by Enaex, Orica and Austin with their own capital—. Enter through the package's belt, where the filter is not the explosives license:

1

Target production blasthole drilling: the reachable large contract without touching explosive. Hualilán already proved the unbundled model —Challenger Gold contracted Thor for 24 months, separate from Orica— and the three porphyries will need 6-12 drill rigs per pit from the 2027-2028 pre-stripping.

2

Nitrate and class 1 dangerous-goods transport: Orica already outsources the freight to Veladero, and at full wave 100-175 kt/year move from Salta and the on-site plants. It is a fleet financeable against a multi-year contract, today with no identified specialized local operator.

3

The civil works and erection of the 2-3 on-site emulsion plants plus the magazines (2027-2033, USD 10-30 M per plant), and the vibration and fragmentation monitoring each environmental permit (DIA) requires — contracts that pass down to the local supplier via RE.PRO.MIN.

Non-addressable

~70-75% of the TAM (today ~USD 18-22 M; full wave ~USD 145-160 M/year): the explosive, the initiation and the integral 'rock on ground' contract stay with the installed global oligopoly — the ANMaC barrier, capital, safety record, BHP/Lundin/Glencore panels; includes the future on-site plants (the explosives supplier's capex and operation)

Your market

Today ~USD 8-12 M; full wave ~USD 50-70 M/year: blasthole drilling (half the SAM), class 1 transport, civil works/erection of plants and magazines, vibration monitoring, maintenance of MMUs/drill rigs. The Local Mining Development Law (80/60 + RE.PRO.MIN, regulations before end-2026) Enlarges it — with the 'competitive market terms' valve as the real limit

Your realistic wedge

USD 3-10 M/year in 2-3 years: a gold/works blasthole contract (USD 3-8 M/year, the Thor-Hualilán scale), the dedicated explosives transport of a mine (USD 1-3 M/year) or the civil works of the first on-site plant; realistic path = a global's subcontract + RE.PRO.MIN + Achilles

Leverage, not a guarantee — the explosive itself still belongs to the oligopoly; the play is the belt, and the window to position is before the porphyries' drill and blast tenders (2027-2029).
The service pays against progress and the authorization is the filter. What it takes to enter through the belt — the full map, open:
Capital
A production drill rig USD 1-2 M each (minimum fleet 3-4 → USD 4-8 M) or a class 1 truck USD 0.3-0.5 M, financeable against a multi-year contract. The plants' civil works are executed against progress certificates.
Authorization
The explosive requires ANMaC authorization (12-24 months) — the barrier that shields the captive and that your play sidesteps. Blastholes, transport and civil works don't require it: you enter with crews acclimatized to +3,500 masl and provincial qualification.
Regime
Qualification in Achilles (Vicuña's portal) + RE.PRO.MIN once it operates: a company with ≥51% San Juan capital or 24 months of local billing to score the 80/60 of the Local Mining Development Law before the panels of BHP, Lundin and Glencore.
Who pays
In two of the entrant's three doors the check is signed by the global explosives supplier, not the mine — the detail, below in “Who really pays?”.
⌛ In progress The execution playbook —which drill and blast contract to target, how to structure the JV with a global, which templates to qualify with in Achilles and RE.PRO.MIN— we are building it. Tell us this niche interests you and we'll contact you when it's ready.
When you get paid, and what blocks it
It pays today: Veladero has been blasting 45-90 Mt/year for two decades, Hualilán fired its first blast Nov/Dec-2025 (Orica + Thor 24-month contracts running), and the jump bills from the 2027-2028 pre-stripping (hundreds of Mt before the first pound of copper) + works blasting already in 2026. Model: a multi-year integral-service contract (3-5 years, renewable for decades) tendered by the operator; in the unbundled model (Hualilán) blastholes and explosives go separately. Real entry bottleneck, in order: (1) ANMaC authorization to touch explosive (12-24 months — it shields the captive; doesn't apply to satellites without explosive); (2) Achilles/BHP-Lundin-Glencore panel qualification (3-9 months) + RE.PRO.MIN from end-2026 (≥51% San Juan capital or 24 months of local billing + 80% payroll); (3) capital (production drill rig USD 1-2 M, minimum fleet 3-4 → USD 4-8 M; class 1 truck USD 0.3-0.5 M); (4) crews acclimatized to +3,500/4,000 masl Time to first invoice: 6-18 months via a global's subcontract or gold blastholes — the window to position before the porphyries' D&B tenders (2027-2029).
Spillover
effect
For the people
How we
calculate it
Annualization window: NONE — this niche is published as a dated STAIRCASE, not as an average. It is the most distinctive shape in the whole San Juan menu and it needs saying: the figure jumps in steps —today's gold core, the pre-stripping jump in 2027-2029, two porphyries at full rate in 2030-2033 and the highest step from 2034, when El Pachón comes in— because demand is set by how much rock is moved each year, and that does not spread evenly over a window. Consequence: none of these figures compares with the TAM/year of an annualized niche. And the market is perpetual: Vicuña has 70+ years of mine life.Rock moved × powder factor × USD/t explosive (all-in service) + blastholes as 0.5-0.8× of the blasting. Today: 48-95 Mt/year blasted (Veladero 45-90 Mt — RIGI F8-9 anchor: +89.2 Mt of stockpile 2025-28 prob, strip 1.0-2.0 [assumption]; + Hualilán/Casposo/works blasting) × 0.20-0.28 kg/t [industry assumption] = 10-27 kt explosive × USD 800-1,300/t [assumption anchored in blasting cost USD 0.15-0.30/t rock and in AN 400-600/t × 1.8-2.5] ≈ USD 8-35 M + blastholes → ~USD 25-30 M. Full wave 2034+: 450-585 Mt/year (Josemaría 175 ktpd verif ITS Lundin with strip 0.8-1.5 [assumption]; Los Azules 129 Mt/year total verif FS Oct 7, 2025 opened Jul 19: 1,023 Mt reserves + 1,684 Mt waste, strip 1.65, 21 years; Pachón 185 ktpd prob strip 1.0-1.5 [assumption]; remaining gold) × 0.22-0.30 kg/t = 100-175 kt explosive/year — 3.6× Campanario's installed capacity (36,000 t/year verif Enaex site opened Jul 19, 2026; the 2014 press said ~65,000 — stated discrepancy) — × USD 0.8-1.3/kg ≈ USD 80-230 M blasting + blastholes → ~USD 210 M central. Top-down cross-check: D&B USD 0.35-0.60/t × 505 Mt = 175-300 M — converges. The capacity gap requires 2-3 new on-site emulsion plants (2027-2033, USD 10-30 M each [assumption; ref. Campanario USD 3.5 M in 2014]).

Concentration Maximum and structural oligopoly: 3 globals (Orica, Enaex, Austin Powder) ≈ 100% of the explosive and the blasting service, each with a distinct physical asset (local plant / on-mine base / own nitrate). The barrier is regulatory (ANMaC) + capital + safety record, not commercial. Competition happens contract by contract; the D&B contracts of the 3 porphyries (with their on-site plants) are tendered 2027-2029 and lock in the winner for decades. Hualilán inaugurated the unbundled model (blastholes separated from the explosive) that opens space to non-globals.

Who really pays?

The obvious name —“the mine”— is not your client across most of the belt. In San Juan drill and blast the entrant's money comes in through different doors, and two of the three are signed NOT by the operator but by the global explosives supplier:

If you sellProduction blasthole drilling
The operator, directly (unbundled model) — or the global explosives supplier as a subcontract prob · Oct 21, 2025

Hualilán opened the door: Golden Mining S.A. (Challenger Gold) contracted Thor S.A. for 24 months for blastholes, separate from Orica (explosives), mobilized Oct-2025. The three porphyries replicate the model from the 2027-2028 pre-stripping.

If you sellNitrate and class 1 dangerous-goods transport
The global explosives supplier, NOT the mine prob · Oct 7, 2025

Orica already outsources the freight of nitrate and high explosives to Veladero; at full wave 100-175 kt/year move from Salta (El Galpón) and the on-site plants. The door is the global, not the operator.

If you sellCivil works and erection of the on-site emulsion plants + magazines
The global explosives supplier (Enaex/Orica/Austin), which capitalizes and operates them, subcontracting the local works estim · Oct 7, 2025

Enaex built Campanario (USD 3.5 M, 2014); the 2-3 new plants (USD 10-30 M each, 2027-2033) are built by the globals with their own capital and pass foundations, buildings and magazines down to the San Juan contractor via RE.PRO.MIN.

If you sellThe integral blasting contract ('rock on ground': explosive + initiation + service)
The operator, directly — but it is captive to the oligopoly prob · Oct 7, 2025

The operator tenders the multi-year integral service; the drill and blast contracts of the 3 porphyries are tendered 2027-2029 and lock in the winner (Orica/Enaex/Austin) for decades. It is the door that is NOT yours — naming it steers you not to touch it.

The lesson: the explosive and the integral contract are captive to the global oligopoly; but the dangerous-goods transport and the civil works of the emulsion plants are the door that oligopoly does outsource.

When the window opens

It's not “what breaks it”: it's the dashboard to enter at the right moment. In blasting, the pre-stripping starts 2-3 years before the first pound of copper.

Leading indicator prob · Oct 7, 2025
The start of pre-stripping and the drill & blast award per porphyry · published by event

The pre-stripping moves hundreds of Mt of waste 2-3 years before the first pound of copper, and the blasting and blasthole contract is signed months before the first blast (Hualilán precedent: Orica and Thor mobilized in October 2025). Following those milestones per project tells the satellite when to position.

San Juan mining press — start of pre-stripping and drill & blast award (Josemaría, Los Azules, El Pachón), by event

For the macro tempo: the copper price (LME, daily) rules over the pace of the porphyries —copper below the studies’ base-case price re-sequences the wave—. A cycle gauge, not the real-time San Juan figure.

The watchlist · what signals the game has changed
Delay of Vicuña's FID (end-2026) / start of El Pachón's works under RIGI (2029)

75% of the jump is copper; a delay shifts the TAM (the rock is blasted anyway, later) but doesn't destroy it. The gold core doesn't depend on any FID. Schedule risk concentrated in 2027-2029 (pre-strip).

Copper drop PRE-FID

It only bites before the FID: it postpones pits by years. In production, blasting is opex on a sunk cost of USD 3,000-9,700 M estim — it's not cut by cycles. Critical window 2026-2029; afterward the niche is shielded for decades (Vicuña +70 years, Pachón 30, Los Azules 21): it is the most perpetual niche in the portfolio.

Water/glaciers/judicial

Access blockades: in Apr-2026 the Chilecito judge ordered a 30-day suspension of Vicuña's activities and a block on transit through La Rioja territory for failure to file the environmental study in that province, and operations continued via the alternative Iglesia route prob — it was a court order over an administrative breach, not a social protest action. Jáchal No Se Toca active. Josemaría's DIA, approved Mar-2026, mitigates San Juan's administrative front, not the judicial one in the neighboring provinces. Isolated interruptions, not structural ones.

Technology that lowers the kg/t

Electronic initiation/precision blasting reduce the powder factor by 10-20% — gradual erosion offset by the growth of the rock moved. It compresses the margin, it doesn't break the niche.

PowerChina-style import / internalization

Low in the service (ANMaC + crews + class 1 logistics make it necessarily local) and in internalization (miners almost never blast on their own: insurance and licenses); medium in works blasting (a Chinese EPC can bring its subcontractor); high only in the raw material (nitrate vs import parity).

How the number is built · and how fresh each data point is

The TAM is built from the bottom up from three variables: how much rock is blasted, how much explosive each tonne requires and how much the all-in service costs. The engine is the rock tonnage, which multiplies when the copper porphyries reach steady state.

~505 Mt of rock/year × ~0.26 kg/t (powder factor) × ~USD 1,050/t of explosive, + blastholes (0.5-0.8×)=~USD 210 M/year at full wave 2034+ (range 130-300); ~USD 25-30 M/year today with gold
Rock moved~450-585 Mt/year (full wave)annual review
The driver. It comes from each porphyry's mine plan: Josemaría 64 Mtpa (verified, Lundin ITS), Los Azules 129 Mt/year with strip 1.65 (verified, Feasibility) and El Pachón 185 ktpd (probable), plus the remaining gold. Josemaría's and El Pachón's strip ratios are stated assumptions. It scales with each project's FID and schedule.
Powder factor~0.22-0.30 kg/tstructural
An industry assumption for an Andean hard-rock open pit; a structural parameter. Electronic initiation and precision blasting can lower it 10-20%, erosion offset by the growth of the rock moved.
Explosive price (all-in service)~USD 800-1,300/tlive data
The weakest link: no operator publishes its rate in San Juan. Anchored in the blasting cost USD 0.15-0.30/t of rock and in ammonium nitrate (~USD 400-600/t), which moves with the exchange rate and import parity. It is an estimate, never data.

The TAM rises in dated steps: from today's gold core it jumps to ~USD 60-90 M in 2027-2029 (pre-stripping + works blasting), ~USD 155 M in 2030-2033 (two porphyries at steady state) and ~USD 210 M from 2034 with El Pachón. The top-down cross-check —505 Mt × USD 0.35-0.60/t of full drill and blast— gives USD 175-300 M/year and converges with the per-variable calculation.

The number rests on a few variables. The formula shows how it moves when each one changes; and each variable carries its freshness seal — how often it is worth revisiting. estim

How we validate this figure

How solid the number is estim

The anchor is the rock-movement capex we opened in the Los Azules feasibility study: the pre-stripping moves hundreds of millions of tonnes of waste years before the first pound of copper, and that is drilling and explosive. Today the market is small (~USD 25-30 M/year) and multiplies toward ~USD 210 M/year at full wave. The total is our own estimate —we say so—: we start from the verified scale of the porphyries and apply standard drilling and blasting consumption, with Hualilán's precedent already under way (drilling and explosives contracts signed in 2025).

How to cite this figure: Despegue (2026). Blasting, explosives and blasthole drilling (San Juan) · San Juan. despegueargentina.com/en/san-juan/voladura-explosivos-barrenos · terms of use

ON REQUEST
Your company against this trade

There are 5 RIGI projects in San Juan that will buy from this trade, and each one opens its window in a different phase. You already have 5 named competitors on this page. Everything we publish here is public and complete. What we build for you is what no listing gives you: in what order they will need it, when each phase opens its window, what you need certified before knocking, and who is already inside.

It is built per company, not a generic PDF. Tell us what you sell and where you operate from, and we build it.

How to read the seals →   verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf not sufficiently backed · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading
Ignacio Aredez
Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
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This is not financial advice. The TAM is an estimate with a transparent method, not an official figure; the framing is labeled as thesis. Every figure carries its source. All opportunities in San Juan