Tax burden / tax cuts

The tax-burden inheritance, measured as it should be: revenue for the twelve months ended July 2026 amounts to $240.6 trillion in July 2026 pesos, against $268.9 trillion for the twelve months ended November 2023 — that is, 10.5% LESS in real terms. ⚠️ This is the axis where the published figure points the opposite way from the arc: July's +35.1% nominal year-on-year reads as revenue rising, and what the real series shows is a State collecting less than the one it inherited. ⛔ The arc does NOT go in nominal pesos: the same twelve months give ×5.38 and almost all of it is inflation. And it does NOT go month against month: revenue is strongly seasonal —May and July carry income-tax deadlines— so comparing November against July would measure the calendar, not the policy. ⭐ AND HERE IS THE MISSING HALF, because without it the figure reads backwards: real revenue falling can mean lower taxes or an economy shrinking, and the number alone does not tell the two apart. Here the rest of the series does: exports rose 26.9% —USD 76,324 M over the first twelve months of the series against USD 96,824 M over the last twelve, current dollars— and activity (EMAE) averaged +2.3% year-on-year over the last twelve months, with 10 of 12 rising. So the State takes a SMALLER slice of a LARGER economy, which is exactly what this axis promises. ⚠️ The exports comparison is NOT against Nov-2023: the series starts there, so a twelve-month total at that date would hold a single month. The first twelve full months are compared against the last twelve. estim · Nov 2023