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San Juan · Cordilleran corridor · concentrate in sealed containers, transhipment node and border crossing
Eighty trucks a day from 2030, and the project itself has already planned to replace them with a pipelinethesis

Copper concentrate logistics and transfer node on the San Juan corridor

estimated market at full rate · from ~2030
USD 20-42 M/yr
The figure above is the whole market. Where a supplier can get in, below.
up to date · reviewed Sep 14, 2026
estim Mar 2026midpoint ~USD 31 M/yrMARKET ~2030 · PREPARE NOW
At a glance
Who buys
The logistics operator that wins the anchor contract, not the miner
the 3 doors →
In which projects
Vicuña · and 1 more not yet approved
what each one invests →
When
Closed until around 2030, and the same document that opens it sets its closing date: the truck lasts until the concentrate pipeline is built. thesis
what to watch and where it stands →
The main barrier
Moving concentrate in a sealed container over a cordillera pass is a different trade from hauling gravel, and it is tendered alongside the construction package: you have to arrive with the track record already in place before the tender documents go out. thesis
the whole entry map →
Where you get in
The gap is not about capacity: it is about track record and timing. It has four layers:
the 4 routes →

When Vicuña starts producing, between 80 and 90 trucks a day will come down from the cordillera, every day, each with 26 tonnes of copper concentrate in sealed containers: 800 thousand tonnes a year, bound for a port in central Chile. So says the project's own technical study, which also says what almost nobody tells: that scheme is transitional. In stage 3 the concentrate moves to a buried concentrate pipeline that shares some 290 kilometres of route with the desalinated-water pipeline —costing USD 5.36 a tonne against USD 150.45 for road freight to port— and a new high-mountain road connects the mine directly to Chile's Route 5. And the destination port, Punta Padrones, is majority-owned by Lundin Mining, one of the project's two owners. None of this bills yet: the first concentrate is scheduled for around 2030. ⚠️ And the figure circulating in the press —395 thousand tonnes— is contained copper and covers the whole mine life, not first-stage concentrate: those are not the tonnes that go onto a truck.

It is the only niche in the San Juan observatory whose market does not exist yet, and that is worth saying before anything else: Vicuña's first concentrate is scheduled for 2030.

See the clocks that are running, one by one
What does exist today is the state act obliging it to build —Resolución 1154/2026, published on 30 July 2026, with a minimum investment deadline of 31 December 2028— and the fact that the route out is already defined: sealed-container trucks to a Chilean port in stages 1 and 2, with a concentrate pipeline only in stage 3. Whoever wants this contract does not have to wait for 2030: they have to be qualified when the fleet is tendered, which happens alongside the construction package.

verif primary sourceestim our own calculationthesis our readingHow to read all five →

What the market is made of

This niche's split is decided by geography and ownership, not by competition. The trunk leg and the port are in Chile — and the port is majority-owned by one of the project's owners. On this side there is a cordilleran leg, a node and a crossing, and we did not identify a single San Juan haulier with a published track record of moving concentrate in a sealed container.

How it splits, and against which total
Split over the midpoint TAM of ~USD 31 M/yr at steady state, from around 2030, over the 800 thousand wet tonnes a year published by the project's technical report. Our own estimate. The two slices add up to the whole market and do not overlap. ⚠️ What an entrant can really take is INSIDE the addressable slice, not next to it: the transfer node with a weighbridge, or the border-crossing service: both are entered without buying a truck and both can be set up before the mine produces. The Chilean leg is not in this pie. estim
CaptiveUSD 18.2 M · 59%
Addressable for an entrantUSD 12.8 M · 41%
CaptiveUSD 18.2 M59%non-addressable
the anchor fleet contract, awarded alongside the construction package, on a long term and with an availability guarantee: it goes to an operator with an owned sealed-container fleet and a track record in the product
Addressable for an entrantUSD 12.8 M41%addressable
the relay on the cordilleran leg on this side of the pass, the transfer node with marshalling yard and weighbridge, and the border crossing services: clearance, documentary control and escort
Non-addressable

The anchor fleet contract, awarded alongside the construction package and on a long term, and the whole trunk and port leg on the Chilean side, where the chain is already in place.

Addressable share

The relay on the cordilleran leg on this side of the pass, the transfer node with marshalling yard and weighbridge, and the border crossing services: clearance, documentary control and escort.

Entry range for a supplier

The transfer node with weighbridge, or the border crossing service. Both enter without buying a truck and both can be set up before the mine produces.

Why we do not put a number on it This market bills nothing today and there is no contract against which to measure an entry share: the first concentrate is scheduled for around 2030 and the fleet contract is awarded alongside the construction package, which has not been tendered yet. And the owner's own document puts a closing date on the truck scheme: it is replaced by a concentrate pipeline in stage 3. Putting an entry figure on it today would mean annualising a contract that does not exist, for a service the buyer has already planned to stop buying.

▸ The limit that governs is in the figure itself: this market bills nothing today and starts around 2030. And the second limit was written by the same document that sizes it: the truck is replaced by a concentrate pipeline in stage 3, costing USD 5.36 a tonne against USD 150.45. ⚠️ And one detail that changes how the figure is read: the 800 thousand tonnes are stage 1's, which is the one that moves by truck. The larger copper figures in circulation average the whole mine life, when stage 3 has already expanded the plant — and by then the concentrate travels through the pipeline.

Who really pays?

Three payers, and the one most worth watching is not the mine:

If you sellConcentrate haulage on the cordilleran leg
→
The logistics operator that wins the anchor contract, not the miner thesis

The big contract is awarded alongside the construction package and goes to a firm with its own sealed-container fleet. But that winner subcontracts legs, relays and workshop — and needs to do so with provincial suppliers to meet its own local procurement targets.

If you sellThe transfer node, the marshalling yard and the weighbridge
→
The logistics operator and the miner itself, as a service per tonne handled thesis

It is the only part of this niche that can be built and run before there is any concentrate. And it is the object whose size changes with El Pachón's decision: if that mine chose an Atlantic route, the node on the Albardón-Jáchal axis stops being a yard and becomes a terminal.

If you sellClearance, documentary control and escort at the pass
→
The exporter and its haulage agent, per shipment verif Mar 30, 2026 ↗

Clearance, documentary control and escort, per shipment. ⚠️ And a route that is taken for granted and is not the project's: the technical report does not name the Agua Negra pass. The Stage 1 and 2 route is the northern access road to a port in central Chile; the Stage 3 route is a new road to Juntas del Potro. Which pass the Stage 1 trucks use to cross into Chile the document does not say: it is on a map, and the maps in that report are images.

▸
All three doors share a calendar requirement that is the niche's practical advice: the window to get in is not when the mine produces, it is when the fleet is tendered, and that happens alongside the construction package. The provincial registry also demands 24 months of seniority to count as local in the department of influence, so anyone wanting to be in by 2030 has to have set up well before.

Which projects move this demand

USD 9,700 M Jun 16, 2026 ↗

The largest mining project in Argentine history by announced investment, and, according to the operator…

see the project →
USD 9,500 M Aug 18, 2025 ↗

Phase 1 of one of Argentina's two largest undeveloped copper deposits, alongside Vicuña: a resource declared by Glencore of ~6,000 Mt @ 0.43% Cu, 2.2 g/t Ag and 130 g/t Mo…

see the project →

When the window opens

This market does not exist yet, so what has to be watched is not a price: it is how and where the product is going to leave, and until when. Closed until around 2030, and with its closing written in the same document. First concentrate is scheduled for around 2030 and today this market does not invoice a thing. When it starts, the technical report says how: truck with a sealed container from the mine to a port in central Chile, along the northern access road, some 80 to 90 trucks a day, with shipments of 22,000 to 33,000 tonnes. And it says when it ends: that scheme «is anticipated to remain operational until the concentrate pipeline is built», which is stage 3 work — and that same stage also brings a high-mountain road connecting the mine directly with Chile's Ruta 5, bypassing the San Juan corridor. ⇒ The truck window is not the regime: it is the bridge to the pipeline.

What to watchWhat changes when it happensStatus
The tonnes of concentrate a year and the trucks a day
It is the physical size of the market, and the owner publishes it instead of it having to be derived.
800,000 wet tonnes a year, containers of 26 tonnes, 80 to 90 trucks a day and shipments of 22,000 to 33,000 tonnes verif Mar 2026 ↗
Progress on the concentrate pipeline
It is what switches off the truck market. The document itself says it: the road route stays operational until the pipeline is built.
an entirely buried pipeline, 10.75 inch diameter, carbon steel, designed for 294 tonnes per hour, two pumping stations of 2,000 kW each, sharing some 290 kilometres of route with the water pipeline.
See the evidence
Published cost: USD 5.36 per tonne against USD 150.45 for the initial road freight to port. Stage 3 works, with no published date
verif Mar 2026 ↗
Progress on the high-mountain road to Chile
Once it exists, the San Juan corridor stops being the product's route: the mine connects directly to the Chilean road network and to a port that is majority-owned by one of the project's two owners.
stage 3 works, with no published date. It leads to Punta Padrones, 280 kilometres away, and to a second Atacama port, 350-400 away.
See the evidence
It will also be used for the stage 2 cathodes and gold
verif Mar 2026 ↗
The corridor's weather window
It decides how many days a year the road is open, which is what a fleet contract has to guarantee.
as of 14 September 2026, with El Niño settled in, a private company that provides weather services to the sector warns that road-opening schedules «are very difficult to keep to», with the period of greatest risk from the start of November — and its specialist, that the public measurement network is too widely spaced to decide logistics with it prob Sep 14, 2026 ↗
What signals the game has changed
The market does not exist yet and its date depends on works only now beginning

First concentrate is scheduled for 2030. What exists today is the act of state requiring investment —Resolución 1154/2026, with a minimum-amount deadline of 31 December 2028— and a construction decision executed in stages. Any slippage in the schedule moves this whole figure.

The stage 3 slurry pipeline switches the truck off

Vicuña's own design places a concentrate pipeline only in stage 3, alongside the desalination plant and the aqueduct.

See the evidence
When that stage comes in, long-haul truck freight ceases to exist. It is a risk on a decade horizon, but it defines the useful life of the asset that has to be bought: anyone financing a fleet over fifteen years needs to know it.
El Pachón may route through Chile and then the Atlantic branch never appears

The specialist press writes that El Pachón's «salida natural» «no está definida» prob . If it chooses a pipeline or truck to a Chilean terminal, the transfer node on the Albardón-Jáchal axis does not get built and the largest block of the alternative scenario disappears before it is born.

On the Argentine side there is no port that handles copper concentrate

Rosario, San Nicolás and Bahía Blanca are the candidates under evaluation and none has the infrastructure today. That is not a terminal detail: it is what makes the Atlantic branch unviable without a port investment nobody has committed. While that investment does not exist, the Pacific wins by default.

See the remaining 2 risks
The corridor depends on the weather

The northern access road climbs above 3,500 metres prob provincial press and is cut by snow: that forces intermediate stock and a stockpiling yard, which raises the operator's working capital.

See the evidence
Turned around, that is also the argument for the transfer node. ⚠️ The technical report does not name the Agua Negra pass, whose tunnel has been stalled since 2019: it is not the project's route.
Part of the copper leaves as cathode, and it is a small part

The oxide stage produces cathodes by electrowinning, and a cathode generates no concentrate freight. The technical report publishes the split over the whole mine life: 21,261 thousand tonnes of copper in concentrate, 860 thousand in cathode and 158 thousand from the circuit that recovers copper from the cyanide solution.

See the evidence
Concentrate is about 95 % of the copper. And the 800 thousand wet tonnes that size this market are already concentrate, so cathode takes nothing away from them.

The opportunity in depth

How to get inthe gap and the routes that open it
1

We did not identify a single haulier in the province with a published track record of moving copper concentrate. There are San Juan firms with work awarded on the corridor, but moving concentrate is not moving gravel: it requires a tipping sealed container, shipment traceability and a spill protocol. That jump is prepared before the tender — and it is tendered alongside the construction package.

2

The transfer node, the yard and the weighbridge, which do not exist. It is the niche's cheapest door because it does not require buying a truck, and it is the only thing that can be set up before the mine produces. If El Pachón were to choose the Atlantic, this same object becomes far bigger, on the Albardón-Jáchal axis.

3

Border crossing services. Clearance, documentary control and escort over a cordilleran pass that closes with snow, and whose route the technical report does not name. It is the layer with the least capital and the most local knowledge in the whole chain.

4

And the gap on the other side, worth seeing: we did not identify an Argentine port that handles copper concentrate. Rosario, San Nicolás and Bahía Blanca were the candidates evaluated and none has the infrastructure. ⚠️ But here the discussion is settled from another angle: one of the project's owners owns the destination port in Chile, so the Pacific does not win by default — it wins because it is in-house.

The size of the marketvolumes, frequency, unit cost and when it starts
Tonnes of concentrate a year, at full rate
800 thousand wet in stage 1 — not the owner's 395 thousand, which are contained copper and over the whole life of mine
Trucks per day
80 to 90, each with its empty return leg
What it costs to move a tonne by truck, and by pipeline
USD 150.45 against USD 5.36
Who owns the destination port
Lundin Mining, one of the project's two owners
Argentine ports handling copper concentrate
we did not identify any among the candidates evaluated
When it starts billing
around 2030; today it is zero
▸ You tell us where to see what your company does and we tell you whether we see a sign that it fits this opportunity, with the evidence behind it. See if my company fits this opportunity →
When you get paid, and what blocks it
High, with one feature worth understanding: here freight is not a manageable cost, it is part of the process. Concentrate that does not leave is production piling up in the yard and capital tied up, and at 800 thousand tonnes a year the yard fills in days. That sustains long-term availability contracts with penalties, which is the highest-margin contract form and also the hardest to enter. There is also a second payer that is not the mine: the provincial state, which needs the corridor working all year and already funds winter road maintenance. And a third, smaller and more accessible: the winning logistics operator itself, which will subcontract legs, workshop and yard to local suppliers to meet its own provincial purchase targets.
Who you compete againstwho is already there and what share they take
Who is
already in
Market
split
The international logistics operator that wins the anchor fleet contractthe bulk of the freight

The concentrate haulage contract is awarded alongside the construction package and on a long term, because it requires an owned sealed-container fleet and an availability guarantee. It is not a spot market: it is won once and held for years.

The Chilean operators of the trunk leg and the portthe entire leg on the far side of the pass

The port of Coquimbo moved in January 2026 more than 21,600 tonnes of copper concentrate and mining-project cargo prob. That side of the chain is settled and is not contested from San Juan: which is why this figure counts only the leg on this side.

The San Juan hauliers of the mining corridortoday the construction work; tomorrow the relay on the cordilleran leg

They exist and already win work: a San Juan firm won the 2025 maintenance of the existing Angualasto-La Majadita road, and another is part of the joint venture that won Segment A of the Corredor Norte. But moving concentrate is not moving gravel — it requires a sealed container, traceability and a spill protocol. Making that jump is the real way in, and it is prepared before it is tendered.

The railway, if El Pachón chooses the Atlanticnone today

The A7 Albardón-Jáchal branch line would be converted to broad gauge within the Belgrano Cargas concession. ⚠️ Pinned down on 19 Sep 2026 by reading the San Martín Line's particular conditions (PLIEG-2026-79596056, 371 pages): it appears there as OPTIONAL works —items SM 47, SM 48 and SM 49, «Track renewal with change to Broad Gauge», 167 km in three stretches between the junction (km 926) and Jáchal (km 1093)—.

See the evidence
⇒ there is no obligation to build it: it only happens if a bidder chooses to commit to it to score points in the evaluation. It is a window, not a certainty, and whoever decides on this needs to know it; bids open on 11 Nov 2026. It competes with nobody yet, but it is what would decide whether a transfer node appears on the Argentine side.

The jobs it createsThe biggest effect of this niche is not the freight: it is that it forces a corridor to stay open all year round. Between 80 and 90 trucks a day —each with its empty return leg— cannot be sustained on a road that closes: they demand permanent maintenance, a marshalling yard, a workshop, a tyre shop, fuel and mechanical recovery along the route, and all of that stays in the cordillera departments.

the detail on jobs and trades
These are trades learned in months —international freight driver, yard operator, heavy fleet mechanic— and they do not depend on the mine continuing to produce the same mineral. ⚠️ And the symmetrical risk is written into the same document that sizes the market: the truck is replaced by a concentrate pipeline in Stage 3, and in that same stage a high-altitude road connects the mine directly to the Chilean road network. Freight employment has an end date; corridor maintenance employment does not.

How we
calculate it

The number is our own estimate. The calculation, step by step, is below.

The full calculation, step by step
AT FULL RATE, NO ANNUALIZATION WINDOW — and with a start date. This niche does not spread a capex nor divide over a window: it measures an operating flow that begins when the mine produces, scheduled for 2030. Its annual figure is not comparable with that of the San Juan niches that annualize, because none of them measures a flow that has not started yet: it is a market with a calculable size and a start date, billing zero today.STEP 1 — WHO GENERATES CONCENTRATE, WHICH IS WHERE THIS NICHE IS DECIDED. Of San Juan's three big copper projects, only one counts:
ProjectWhat it producesCounts
Vicuña (Josemaría + Filo del Sol)copper concentrate with gold and silver in the sulphide stagesYES
Los Azules (McEwen)cathodes by leaching and electrowinningNO — a cathode has no concentrate logistics problem
El Pachón (Glencore)concentrate, but its route out is undefineddeclared and NOT added
STEP 2 — THE UNIT TRAP, WHICH IS THE FINDING. Vicuña's Integrated Technical Study publishes, verbatim: *«Average annual copper production (25 yrs) 395 kt/yr»*. Those are tonnes of contained copper, and they are the average of the first 25 years of a project that lasts 71. Some press headlines that same figure as *«395,000 tpy of copper concentrate»*, and it is not the same thing: the concentrate that goes onto a truck weighs about four times more than the copper it carries inside. ⚠️ But there is no need to derive it: the technical report itself publishes the concentrate tonnage, and it is 800 thousand wet tonnes a year.It is the same error that had already appeared in Catamarca lithium, with chloride against carbonate. In logistics, the headline's unit is almost never the truck's unit — and confusing them understates the fleet by a large factor. ⚠️ And there is a second difference that matters as much as the unit: the window. The 395 thousand average 25 years; the truck only works in stage 1.STEP 3 — THE PHYSICAL TONNAGE, PUBLISHED AND NOT DERIVED. The technical report, in its binational road section, states verbatim: an average annual concentrate production of 800 thousand wet tonnes, 26-tonne containers and, consequently, approximately 80 to 90 trucks departing the site each day, with shipments of 22 to 33 thousand tonnes.⇒ That figure is used, and not a conversion with an assumed grade. The same report gives the grade of the final concentrate: a minimum above 22 % copper and annual averages of 23.5 to 28.9 %; stage 1's 27 % falls within that band.✅ And the figure that seemed not to add up does add up — the primary source settled it (15-Sep-2026). The 800 thousand wet tonnes are stage 1's: the chapter itself says «the concentrate transport system to be implemented for Stage 1». With the production plan figures from the same report —64 million tonnes of feed a year, a grade of 0.36 % copper and 84 % recovery give 195 thousand tonnes of copper in year 3— and with the concentrate grade the document declares for that stage, 27 %, plus 10.9 % moisture, the result is 804 thousand wet tonnes: half a point of difference against the 800 thousand published. And the 395 thousand tonnes of the Integrated Technical Study are a different thing: total copper —concentrate plus cathode— averaged over the first 25 years, when stage 3 has already taken the plant from 64 to 107 million tonnes a year. The same NI 43-101 report, added up year by year over that same 25-year window, gives 382 thousand tonnes, and over the 71 years of mine life, 314 thousand. ⇒ 800 thousand is the correct figure for this niche, and by the time copper reaches that average the concentrate no longer goes by truck but through the concentrate pipeline.STEP 4 — THE RATE, AND WHY IT IS CHEAPER HERE THAN IN THE PUNA. The puna last-mile band used in Catamarca is USD 30 to 65 per tonne. Here the band is USD 22 to 45 per tonne, and the reason is scale: at hundreds of thousands of tonnes a year, with a dedicated fleet and on a purpose-built mining road, the unit cost falls against that of a small operation on public gravel.STEP 5 — THE THREE BLOCKS, AND WHAT IS LEFT OUT.- (A) San Juan cordilleran leg, mine to pass: 0.8 Mt × USD 22-45/t = USD 18 to 36 M/year.- (B) Transfer node, marshalling yard and weighbridge: USD 2-5 per tonne handled [own assumption] = USD 1.6 to 4.0 M/year.- (C) Border crossing services —clearance, control, escort, documentation—: USD 1-3 per tonne [own assumption] = USD 0.8 to 2.4 M/year.- ⛔ Left out on purpose: the trunk haul on Chilean territory to the port. It is a service provided in Chile and Chilean operators win it. Counting it would have inflated the niche with money a San Juan supplier cannot take.- ⛔ Also left out: the workshop and high-altitude tires, not because they do not exist but because they are already inside the freight price. Adding them separately would be double counting.TOTAL AT FULL RATE: USD 20 to 42 M/year, midpoint ~USD 31 M/year.STEP 6 — THE FORK, DECLARED AS A SCENARIO AND NOT AS AN ASSUMPTION. El Pachón is not added, and the reason is that its route out is an open decision with two incompatible branches:- Pacific branch: slurry pipeline or truck to a Chilean terminal. The historic 2008 design reportedly envisaged a ~164 km pipeline to Los Vilos unconf the only source is an open encyclopedia. If this branch wins, the niche does not grow on the Argentine side.- Atlantic branch: road trains and rail towards Rosario, San Nicolás or Bahía Blanca — none of the three has infrastructure today to handle copper concentrate. If this branch wins, a new object appears: transfer on the Albardón-Jáchal axis, tied to converting the A7 branch line to broad gauge within the Belgrano Cargas concession. Today that is a concession project, not works under way.The specialized press writes that its «natural route out is not defined» prob GlobalPorts, May-2026. That is why the scenario is published here rather than a figure: quantifying a branch that has not been chosen would mean selling someone else's decision as a fact.

Concentration Concentration is high, and now we know why: one of the project's two owners owns the destination port. Punta Padrones, in Atacama, is majority-owned by one of the project's two owners and already exports the concentrate of another of its mines; it is 280 kilometres from the high-mountain road and the study itself says it will be the main port once that road exists. That splits the business into two uneven halves: the Chilean one is in-house, and the Argentine one does not exist yet — there are San Juan hauliers with work awarded on the corridor, but we did not identify a single one with a published track record of moving concentrate. The window to get in is the fleet tender, which goes out alongside the construction package. ⭐ And there is a market fact published nowhere: the purchase option over 40 % of Josemaría's concentrate —held by a Japanese agency— was recently transferred to Mitsui.

The rule that moves it

Here the rule does not create the demand —the concentrate has to leave regardless— but it decides who can invoice it from San Juan:

See the underlying reading

The underlying policy that opens up this demand. It is the same inference declared by the rules and the program pillars pushing in this direction.

the bottleneck moves to transport
enables
San Juan: 80/60 local mining procurement
See the rule →
For this business line it is the door that bites hardest, and not because of the percentage but because of the clock. Its requirements are simultaneous —licensed establishment, legal and tax domicile in the province, 80 % San Juan staff and a fleet registered here— and in haulage the first three are achievable.
See the full legal grounds
What decides is the timeline: 24 months of seniority to count as local in the department of influence. Since the real window to get in is the fleet tender, which happens alongside the construction package, anyone wanting to be inside has to have set up two years ahead of that tender.

Where the number comes from

USD 20-42 M/yr, midpoint ~USD 31 M, at steady state. And the two limits that govern: this market bills nothing today —it starts around 2030— and the document itself puts a closing date on it, because the truck is replaced by a concentrate pipeline in stage 3

See the calculation, the variables and how it was validated

The figure is built from two variables, and the first stopped being a conversion of ours: the project's technical study publishes the concentrate tonnage directly.

the 800 thousand wet tonnes of concentrate a year of stage 1 published by the technical study × the cordilleran leg rate of USD 22 to 45 per tonne=USD 20-42 M/yr, midpoint ~USD 31 M, at steady state
Tonnes of concentrate per year800 thousand wet (stage 1)annual review
Verbatim from the project's technical report, in the chapter on the binational road and referring to stage 1: «an average annual concentrate production of 800 thousand wet tonnes». ⛔ There is no need to convert contained copper with an assumed grade: the document carries the concentrate tonnage directly. ✅ And the conversion, done in reverse, confirms it: 64 million tonnes of feed at 0.36 % with 84 % recovery are 194 thousand tonnes of copper, which at a 27 % concentrate grade and 10.9 % moisture give 804 thousand wet tonnes.
Trucks per day80 to 90, in sealed containers of 26 tonnesannual review
Also verbatim from the study, and derived by the issuer itself from the 800 thousand tonnes and the container capacity. Each with its empty return leg. It is the figure needed to size the workshop, the yard, the tyres and the pass's weather window.
Cordilleran leg rateUSD 22 to 45 per tonnelive data
OUR OWN CUT. The puna last-mile band we publish in the neighbouring province is USD 30 to 65; here we lower it because at this volume, with a dedicated fleet and a purpose-built road, the unit cost falls against that of a small operation on public gravel.
How long the truck scheme lastsuntil the concentrate pipeline is built, in stage 3live data
It is the niche's uncomfortable fact and the owner itself writes it: the road route «is anticipated to remain operational until the concentrate pipeline is built». The pipeline costs USD 5.36 a tonne against USD 150.45 for road freight to port.

The number rests on a few variables. The formula shows how it moves when each one changes; and each variable carries its freshness seal — how often it is worth revisiting. estim

How solid the number is estim

The entire size of this market hangs on one tonnage, and that tonnage is published and does not have to be derived. The press confuses contained copper with concentrate —they are different things and the difference is more than threefold—, but there is no need to convert one into the other with an assumed grade, because the project's own technical report carries the physical figure.What it publishes, verbatim, for stage 1: an average annual concentrate production of 800 thousand wet tonnes, containers of 26 tonnes and, consequently, approximately 80 to 90 trucks leaving the site per day, with shipments of 22 to 33 thousand tonnes. The rate band is applied to that tonnage, and that is where the size of the market comes from. And stage 1 is exactly the one that moves by truck, so it is the correct figure and not a part of a larger one.And the same document carries two things that change the framing more than the figure:- The destination port belongs to one of the project's owners. Punta Padrones, in Atacama, is majority-owned by Lundin Mining —one of the project's two owners— and already exports the concentrate of its Candelaria mine.- The truck is transitional. Verbatim: that route «is anticipated to remain operational until the concentrate pipeline is built». The pipeline costs USD 5.36 a tonne against USD 150.45 for road freight.✅ And we did the arithmetic ourselves, to find out whether the 800 thousand were everything or a part. The report says that in stage 1 the plant treats 64 million tonnes a year and that in year 3 it yields 195 thousand tonnes of copper in concentrate; at the concentrate grade the same document declares for that stage —27 %— and with 10.9 % moisture, that gives 804 thousand wet tonnes, against the 800 thousand it publishes. Half a point of difference. The 395 thousand tonnes quoted everywhere are a different thing: total copper —concentrate plus cathode— averaged over the first 25 years, when stage 3 has already taken the plant from 64 to 107 million tonnes a year. Over that same window the report gives 382 thousand, and over the 71 years of mine life, 314 thousand. ⇒ both figures are correct and they measure different windows, and the one that is useful to a haulier is stage 1's.What we deliberately leave out: Los Azules produces cathodes and not concentrate, so it stays entirely out; El Pachón has no defined route out and is declared and not added; and the Chilean leg does not enter either, because it is a service provided on the far side of the pass.

Coverage: the registries of San Juan's two mining supplier chambers —CASEMI's 187 members and CAPRIMSA's 40 published— and the technical report of the project that will generate the concentrate, 418 pages read in full · Sep 14, 2026 · not reviewed: the national register of international freight transport publishes no roll filterable by cargo type and there is no public list of dangerous-goods authorizations by company: the gap is stated on what is published, not on who could do it

How to cite this figure: Despegue (2026). Copper concentrate logistics and transfer node on the San Juan corridor · San Juan. despegueargentina.com/en/san-juan/logistica-concentrado-cobre-transbordo · terms of use

Neighbouring markets2 markets in the same group, from USD 300 to USD 550 M a year

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Ignacio Aredez
Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →
  • 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
  • Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
  • Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
  • Registered expert with the European Commission
How to read the seals →
  verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows
This is not financial advice. The TAM is an estimate with a transparent method, not an official figure; the framing is labeled as thesis. Every figure carries its source. ← All opportunities in San Juan