Bands tied to inflation, and the BCRA buys reserves

What changed

From Jan 1, 2026 the ceiling and floor of the FX floating band evolve each month at the pace of the latest INDEC monthly inflation figure with a T-2 lag (before: a fixed FX crawl anchor, 2% monthly per the statement itself). In parallel, the BCRA starts a pre-announced international-reserve accumulation program: a base scenario of re-monetization that takes the monetary base from 4.2% to 4.8% of GDP by Dec-2026, suppliable with purchases of up to USD 10,000 million (up to USD 17,000 million if money demand rises an additional 1% of GDP), subject to balance-of-payments flow supply, with daily execution aligned to 5% of the daily FX-market (MLC) volume. It is a BCRA monetary-policy statement, not a decree/law published in the Official Gazette: its validity is operational (BCRA's own execution), not erga omnes normative. verif · Dec 15, 2025 ↗

In force

Jan 1, 2026 (operational validity; effective debut Jan 2, 2026, the first business day). The first monthly band update (January 2026) was 2.42%, which is INDEC's MONTHLY inflation for November 2025 (the ANNUAL inflation for Nov-2025 was 31.4%, a figure that does appear verbatim in the statement). The concrete 2.42% value and the band levels of the first day (floor ~914.78 and ceiling ~1,529.03 ARS/USD) come from press (Chequeado), not from the statement: the statement sets the mechanism, not the debut values. verif · Jan 1, 2026 ↗

Who it affects

The entire Argentine FX market: importers and exporters (the more predictable, inflation-tied band reduces the risk of an abrupt FX jump), peso holders (the re-monetization via reserve purchases expands the money supply in step with money demand), and the financial sector (LECAP/repo operations and gradual reserve-requirement normalization). For the investor in long USD projects, it redefines the exchange-rate crawl rule and the BCRA's reserve-accumulation path. verif · Dec 15, 2025 ↗

The norm

BCRA Monetary Policy Statement 'Profundización del esquema de agregados monetarios: fase de re-monetización 2026' (Deepening the monetary aggregates framework: 2026 re-monetization phase), dated Monday, December 15, 2025. It is not a law, a decree or a Boletín Oficial publication: it is a BCRA monetary policy statement. The band regime itself had been launched in April 2025 (initial range ARS 1,000-1,400/USD); this statement redesigns how the bands slide. verif · Dec 15, 2025 ↗

Our reading

The BCRA ties the band crawl to real inflation (INDEC T-2) and commits to repurchasing reserves in a pre-announced way: two signals of a more predictable currency and an exchange rate without abrupt jumps (R3, stability), exactly what makes long dollar contracts credible. It adds to R2: a normalized FX market and accumulating reserves reinforce the free availability of foreign exchange the RIGI promises. What to watch without assuming bad faith: that money demand keeps pace; if it falls, the statement itself provides for corrective measures, and the band ceiling gains in real terms over time (the statement says so: the crawl does not net out US inflation). thesis

Where it lands, province by province1

Neuquén An exchange rate with a crawl tied to inflation and accumulating reserves gives more predictability to Vaca Muerta export settlement (oil/gas and future LNG) and to the import of dollarized equipment and services (frac equipment, tubing, plants). Less risk of an abrupt FX jump + rising reserves reinforce the free availability of foreign exchange the RIGI promises the large energy projects, turning 'submitted' projects into 'under construction' and driving demand to the satellite supplier ecosystem. favorable the RIGI promise is kept thesis

Bands tied to inflation + the BCRA buys reserves again

What changed and who it applies to

Our reading

Where it lands, province by province1

The other rules on this subject12

Get on board the takeoff