The norm, in detail
Neuquén sets YPF the LNG rules for 30 years: royalties tied to the Asian price and USD 25,000 M at stake
Agreement signed 06/04/2026, ratified by provincial Law 3566 (enacted 06/25/2026, promulgated 07/06/2026, Official Gazette 4593 of 07/08/2026)
in forcePROVINCIAL
Energy and natural resources
What changed and who it applies to
What changed
Regime verified against the primary source on 2026-08-17 by opening Official Gazette of Neuquén No. 4593 (07/08/2026), which publishes Law 3566 together with its Annex — the standalone PDF of the law carries only the articles. The Agreement sets a tailor-made fiscal regime for Argentina's first exportable LNG project over five unconventional concessions (CENCH): Meseta Buena Esperanza I and II, Las Tacanas I and II, and Aguada Villanueva Norte. Concrete components:(1) FISCAL STABILITY/shield for 30 years for the project vehicles (provincial tax conditions cannot be raised nor new taxes created that affect them), conditional on the project remaining within RIGI.(2) Tiered royalties indexed to the JKM index (Japan Korea Marker, the Asian LNG price published by S&P Global Platts in USD/MMBtu): 7.5% if the JKM averaged over the two months preceding the royalty due date is below Base Value 1 (16 USD/MMBtu); 10% between 16 and 20; 12% from Base Value 2 (20 USD/MMBtu).(3) Triennial review of the thresholds, every 3 years from the start of LNG exports: a ratio is computed between the JKM and the domestic gas price for the industry destination (firm, Neuquén basin), against an Original Base Ratio of 4.5; if the Ratio rises 15% or more (>=5.175) the Base Values drop USD 2/MMBtu, if it falls 15% or more (<=3.825) they rise USD 2/MMBtu, and the adjustments are cumulative across three-year periods (adjustment on January 1, using the weighted average Ratio of the previous 12 months).(4) Infrastructure bonus of USD 175,000,000 (VAT and works taxes included) as ypf's investment commitment, payable in works or in cash; its destination is instrumented through an Infrastructure Bonus Agreement to be signed within the «maximum and non-extendable» period of 90 calendar days from the Notification under Art. 1.2 and, failing agreement for reasons not attributable to the Province, the Province determines it unilaterally.(5) Turnover tax exemption for revenue from crude oil and natural gas extraction (codes 61000/62000) in the domestic market carried out exclusively between VPUs adhering to the RIGI within the LNG Project whose final destination is export; on Stamp Tax, the Province undertakes to process the exemption of the Agreement (art. 238 of the Tax Code) — it is not an automatic exemption.(6) Dispute resolution under International Chamber of Commerce rules, seated in Paris, in Spanish, with carve-outs reserved to the provincial courts (enforcement of taxes, royalties and fees, public policy, criminal and environmental law). The project's total estimated investment is around USD 25,000 million (disbursements by YPF and its partners in the Argentina LNG JV, closed as a three-way split: YPF 36%, Eni 32% and XRG 32% verif 2026-07-15 against corporate primary sources — SPA closing subject to regulatory approval; the ~USD 30,000 million figure in circulation refers to the integrated project including wells, a broader scope than the Agreement's). verif · Jul 8, 2026 ↗
In force
Law 3566 in force since its publication in the Official Gazette (No. 4593 of 07/08/2026; art. 5). The Agreement was signed on 06/04/2026 and its effectiveness was conditional on approval by the Executive (Decree 796/2026, met), legislative ratification (met through Law 3566) and the notice under Art. 1.2 (FID + financing), which YPF must submit within 24 months from the CENCH coming into force — the only pending condition. verif · Jul 8, 2026 ↗
Who it affects
Direct: YPF S.A. and the LNG Project (Argentina LNG) vehicles/SPVs and their partners (ENI, XRG/ADNOC). Indirect: the Vaca Muerta satellite-services ecosystem — service companies, gas-pipeline and liquefaction-plant builders, logistics, metalworking and SME suppliers that plug into the megaproject and the infrastructure-bonus works. The Province of Neuquén as tax authority (it defines its royalty flow for 30 years) and the Comarca Petrolera (Añelo and surroundings) for the local economic impact. The provincial opposition (UxP, FIT, sectors of ATE) questioned the differential royalties as a "cession of fiscal sovereignty for 30 years". prob · Jul 8, 2026 ↗
The norm
Provincial Ley 3566 (EX-2026-02063802-NEU-SGRAL): approves the Acta Acuerdo Proyecto GNL (LNG Project Agreement) signed on Jun 4, 2026 between the Minister of Energy and YPF S.A., approved by the Executive through DECTO-2026-796-E-NEU-GPN and incorporated into the law as an Annex (art. 1); ratifies the 30-year provincial tax stability guarantee over the CENCH concessions Meseta Buena Esperanza I and II, Aguada Villanueva Norte, Las Tacanas I and Las Tacanas II, in line with the act approving RIGI enrollment and conditional on that enrollment being effective and complied with (art. 2, cf. art. 56 inc. a) of national Ley 17.319 and arts. 172 and 201 of Ley 27.742); invites municipalities to enact equivalent tax measures (art. 3); submits disputes under the Acta GNL and the related Actas Acuerdo CENCH (DECTO-2026-777/778/779-E-NEU-GPN) to arbitration under the rules of the ICC (International Chamber of Commerce), seated in Paris and conducted in Spanish, with exceptions reserved to the provincial courts (art. 4); in force from its publication in the Boletín Oficial (art. 5). Passed (DADA) on Jun 25, 2026, enacted by DECTO-2026-920-E-NEU-GPN on Jul 6, 2026 and published in Neuquén's Boletín Oficial No. 4593 of Jul 8, 2026 (text of the Acta included). It sits under the national RIGI (Ley Bases 27.742). verif · Jul 8, 2026 ↗
Our reading
Neuquén is not waiting for the LNG: it locks in 30-year rules of the game for YPF and ties royalties to the Asian price to capture more when the market pays better. With USD 25 billion and Argentina's first exportable LNG at stake, this is the anchor of Vaca Muerta's next cycle — and the wave of works, pipelines and satellite services it drags along is where the well-positioned supplier gets in. [Update 2026-07-16] The regime is now law: the Legislature ratified the Agreement through Law 3566 (enacted 06/25, promulgated 07/06/2026) and the LNG fiscal framework is firm — the only pending condition is the final investment decision, with a 24-month clock already running verif. The majors have already put in equity: Eni and XRG (ADNOC) signed their entry at 32% each (YPF keeps 36%), with final investment decision expected for 2H-2026 verif the closing of the purchase awaits regulatory approval. The '~USD 30 B integrated' figure that circulated prob has a different scope than the Agreement's ~USD 25 B (project vs. integrated with upstream): they do not overwrite each other. thesis
Where it lands, province by province1
Neuquén Regime made firm by Law 3566 (in force since 07/08/2026): 30-year fiscal stability for the LNG project's CENCH (Meseta Buena Esperanza I/II, Las Tacanas I/II, Aguada Villanueva Norte), tiered royalties 7.5%-12% indexed to JKM, infrastructure bonus USD 175M; estimated total investment ~USD 25,000M. Pending: the FID within 24 months. favorable prob
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Ignacio Aredez· Chief analyst
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How to read the seals → verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf not sufficiently backed · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading