Fiscal anchor: surplus two years running

What changed

For the first time since 2010, the National Public Sector closed with an annual financial surplus: in 2024 the financial result was $1,764,786 million (0.3% of GDP) with a primary of $10,405,810 million (1.8% of GDP), and in 2025 it repeated for the second consecutive year with a financial result of $1,453,819 million (0.2% of GDP) and a primary of $11,769,219 million (1.4% of GDP), after paying $10,315,400 million in interest. It is not a 'fiscal rule' by its own law: during 2024 and 2025 the balance was an Executive execution policy on the extended 2023 Budget (Law 27.701), not a legal fiscal-rule norm in force. The 2025 surplus held despite the elimination of withholding regimes and tax reductions over the year. verif · Feb 1, 2026 ↗

In force

The annual financial surplus has applied as a result since fiscal year 2024 (the first since 2010) and repeated in 2025. The extension of the 2023 Budget that framed 2025 execution is in force from Jan 1, 2025 (Decree 1131/2024, published Dec 30, 2024). verif · Jan 1, 2025 ↗

Who it affects

The entire National Public Administration (a real cut in primary spending across jurisdictions, transfers, public works and subsidies) and, indirectly, every economic agent in the country: the surplus is the condition the government repeats for every tax/export-duty cut and the anchor of the investment climate and of disinflation. verif · Feb 1, 2026 ↗

The norm

There is no single 'fiscal rule' law. The budget framework under which the balance was delivered was the 2023 Budget (Ley 27.701), rolled over into 2025 by Decreto 1131/2024 (signed Dec 27, 2024, published in the Boletín Oficial on Dec 30, 2024), via art. 27 of Ley 24.156 on financial administration. The fiscal result is reported by the Secretaría de Hacienda (Treasury Secretariat, Office of the President). The 2026 Budget (Ley 27.798), the first one voted under this administration, is where the balance/surplus rule finally enters the text of the law. verif · Dec 30, 2024 ↗

Our reading

Fiscal balance is the anchor of the whole program (R1/R6): two consecutive years of financial surplus, the first since 2010, and sustained in 2025 even while cutting taxes. It is the condition that enables each export-duty cut and disinflation, and the central signal for the investment climate. Institutional strength grows as it moves from cash management on an extended budget to a rule voted in the 2026 Budget. What to watch, without presuming bad faith by the Executive: the 2025 surplus (0.2% of GDP) is tighter than 2024's (0.3%) and depends on sustaining the cut against falling revenue; the margin is real but narrow. thesis

Where it lands, province by province3

Neuquén The surplus is sustained by cutting discretionary transfers, and there Neuquén plays differently: hydrocarbon royalties are 37.8% of its collected revenue (2025 accounts) against 4.0% in Río Negro. With no federal cash to fight over, the governor competes for firms to settle, and the provincial regime already exists: Law 3502 from USD 500,000 and a tax credit for hiring Neuquén suppliers. The counter that matters is the provincial one. favorable thesis

Catamarca Two years of surplus are sustained with real cuts to spending, transfers and public works. Catamarca is where that lands differently because of its composition: public administration is its largest sector at 13.28% of provincial GDP and mining is third at 9.69%; adding public education and health, the state accounts for ~24.7% of value added, and mining royalties are 0.28% of provincial revenue. mixed thesis

San Juan San Juan's three copper giants — Vicuña (USD 18,100 M), El Pachón (USD 9,500 M) and Los Azules — do not yet invoice a single dollar: their capex is discounted entirely against a rate, with no cash flow of their own to cushion it. With Vicuña's FID expected before end-2026 and an IRR of ~14.8%, a sustained surplus — through a lower risk premium — moves the project above or below the approval threshold. favorable lowers country risk thesis

The other rules on this subject19

Fiscal Package: asset declaration, moratorium and tax cutsLaw 27.743 (Official Gazette Jul 8, 2024)in force

Payment to holdouts: closing the 2001-default lawsuitsLaw 27.818 (promulgated by Decree 564/2026, Official Gazette Jul 1, 2026)in force

The "lock on the State": fiscal balance by lawLaw 27.798 (2026 Budget), art. 1 — in force; the permanent "lock on the State" still a billpending

PAÍS Tax: it rose, fell and expiredDecree 29/2023 + Decree 777/2024 (expiry of Law 27.541, 12/23/2024)in execution

Renting out and selling housing no longer pays income taxLaw 27,802 Title XXIV + Decree 406/2026 (Official Gazette Jun 1, 2026)in force

Fiscal Innocence: less prison exposure and less tax-agency pressure for the compliantLaw 27.799in force

See all 19 under «Fiscal and monetary anchor» →

Fiscal anchor: surplus two years in a row

What changed and who it applies to

Our reading

Where it lands, province by province3

The other rules on this subject19

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