In force since Jan 1, 2025
Fiscal anchor: surplus two years in a row
Executive execution policy on the extended budget (Decreto 1131/2024)
in forceNATIONAL
Fiscal and monetary anchor
First financial surplus since 2010: $1,764,786 M in 2024, 0.3% of GDP, and $1,453,819 M in 2025, on the budget rolled over by Decreto 1131/2024.
The other rules on this subject23
Fiscal Package: asset amnesty, moratorium and tax cutsLey 27.743 (Official Gazette Jul 8, 2024)in force
Payment to the creditors who stayed out of the swap: closing the 2001-default lawsuitsLey 27.818 (promulgated by Decreto 564/2026, Official Gazette Jul 1, 2026)in force
Catamarca 2026: extracting pays 0.75% turnover tax; serving the mine, 3% to 4.8%Ley 5927 - Decreto 1679 (Catamarca, 2025)in force
What changed and who it applies to
What changed
For the first time since 2010, the National Public Sector closed with an annual financial surplus: in 2024 the financial result was $1,764,786 million (0.3% of GDP) with a primary of $10,405,810 million (1.8% of GDP), and in 2025 it repeated for the second consecutive year with a financial result of $1,453,819 million (0.2% of GDP) and a primary of $11,769,219 million (1.4% of GDP), after paying $10,315,400 million in interest. It is not a 'fiscal rule' by its own law: during 2024 and 2025 the balance was an Executive execution policy on the extended 2023 Budget (Ley 27.701), not a legal fiscal-rule norm in force. The 2025 surplus held despite the elimination of withholding regimes and tax reductions over the year. verif Feb 1, 2026 ↗
In force
The annual financial surplus has applied as a result since fiscal year 2024 (the first since 2010) and repeated in 2025. The extension of the 2023 Budget that framed 2025 execution is in force from Jan 1, 2025 (Decreto 1131/2024, published Dec 30, 2024). verif Jan 1, 2025 ↗
Who it applies to
The entire National Public Administration (a real cut in primary spending across jurisdictions, transfers, public works and subsidies) and, indirectly, every economic agent in the country: the surplus is the condition the government repeats for every tax/export-duty cut and the anchor of the investment climate and of disinflation. verif Feb 1, 2026 ↗
The norm
There is no single 'fiscal rule' law. The budget framework under which the balance was delivered was the 2023 Budget (Ley 27.701), rolled over into 2025 by Decreto 1131/2024 (signed Dec 27, 2024, published in the Boletín Oficial on Dec 30, 2024), via art. 27 of Ley 24.156 on financial administration. The fiscal result is reported by the Secretaría de Hacienda (Treasury Secretariat, Office of the President). The 2026 Budget (Ley 27.798), the first one voted under this administration, is where the balance/surplus rule finally enters the text of the law. verif Dec 30, 2024 ↗
Our reading
Fiscal balance is the anchor of the whole program (R1/R6): two consecutive years of financial surplus, the first since 2010, and sustained in 2025 even while cutting taxes. It is the condition that enables each export-duty cut and disinflation, and the central signal for the investment climate. Institutional strength grows as it moves from cash management on an extended budget to a rule voted in the 2026 Budget. What to watch, without presuming bad faith by the Executive: the 2025 surplus (0.2% of GDP) is tighter than 2024's (0.3%) and depends on sustaining the cut against falling revenue; the margin is real but narrow. thesis
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Where it lands, province by province3
Neuquén The surplus is sustained by cutting discretionary transfers, and there Neuquén plays differently: hydrocarbon royalties are 37.8% of its collected revenue (2025 accounts) against 4.0% in Río Negro. With no federal cash to fight over, the governor competes for firms to settle, and the provincial regime already exists: Ley 3502, with no investment floor in its text, and a tax credit for hiring Neuquén suppliers. The counter that matters is the provincial one. favorable thesis
Catamarca Two years of surplus are sustained with real cuts to spending, transfers and public works. Catamarca is where that lands differently because of its composition: public administration is its largest sector at 13.28% of provincial GDP and mining is third at 9.69%; adding public education and health, the state accounts for ~24.7% of value added, and mining royalties are 0.28% of provincial revenue. mixed thesis
San Juan San Juan's three copper giants — Vicuña (USD 18,100 M), El Pachón (USD 9,500 M) and Los Azules — do not yet invoice a single dollar: their capex is discounted entirely against a rate, with no cash flow of their own to cushion it. With Vicuña's FID expected before end-2026 and an IRR of ~14.8%, a sustained surplus — through a lower risk premium — moves the project above or below the approval threshold. favorable lowers country risk thesis
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Analysis and curation: Ignacio Aredez
Head of Despegue
Method and track record →- 20+ years in technology, 15 of them in data and AI, for clients across Europe and the Americas
- Certified in AI governance (ISO/IEC 42001)
- Machine Learning (Google Cloud)
- Registered expert with the European Commission
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verif primary source · prob primary source pending · unconf a source said it · estim our own calculation · thesis our reading · the date belongs to the datum, at the precision its source allows