December 2023 devaluation: $800 dollar + 2% crawl

What changed

On Dec 12, 2023 (two days after Milei's inauguration) Economy Minister Luis Caputo announced a devaluation that took the wholesale official dollar from ~$366 to ~$800/USD (nominal jump ~118%), effective Dec 13, 2023, and set a managed sliding path (crawling peg) of 2% monthly as the stabilization program's nominal anchor. The BCRA documents it verbatim in its 2023 Report to Congress: 'Upon setting the new exchange rate at $800/USD, a 2% (two percent) monthly sliding path was determined' (and, in another passage: 'a 2% (two percent) per month sliding path was defined'). It is not a single numbered regulatory act: the wholesale reference value is channeled through Communication 'A' 3500 (daily reference) and the 2% was a policy decision. The crawl's pace was later reduced to 1% monthly from Feb 1, 2025 and the scheme migrated to floating bands from Apr 11, 2025 (later changes documented as their own reforms). verif · Dec 13, 2023 ↗

In force

Dec 13, 2023 (announced Dec 12, 2023, in force Dec 13, 2023). The realignment took effect and was not reversed; the later scheme modified the crawl's pace (1% from Feb 1, 2025) and then moved to floating bands (Apr 11, 2025), treated as their own reforms. verif · Dec 13, 2023 ↗

Who it affects

The whole economy: exporters and importers (it corrects the anti-export bias of the previous gap), peso holders, dollarized and dollar-indebted sectors, and foreign trade in general. The BCRA notes that the realignment allowed a genuine improvement in the trade balance and a recovery of the level of liquid international reserves. verif · Dec 13, 2023 ↗

The norm

There is no single numbered instrument that sets either the exchange rate or the 2%: it is an FX policy decision by the BCRA / Ministry of Economy announced on Dec 12, 2023. The reference wholesale rate is published through Comunicación 'A' 3500 (the daily reference), and the associated FX package of Dec 13, 2023 includes Comunicaciones 'A' 7916/7917 (access to the FX market to pay for imports) and 'A' 7918 (BOPREAL), but these regulate ACCESS to the market; they do not set the rate or the 2% pace. The measure is documented as a policy act in the BCRA's Informe al Congreso 2023 (its 2023 report to Congress). verif · Dec 13, 2023 ↗

Our reading

The December 2023 FX realignment corrected in one stroke the gap that suffocated export settlement and subsidized imports, and the 2% crawl anchored expectations instead of kicking the correction forward (R3 stability + R2 FX normalization). An orderly devaluation with an announced path is what the program promised: predictability for whoever produces and exports. What would need watching is the FX lag if inflation runs above the crawl, but that is a calibration risk of the program itself, not a change of direction. thesis

Where it lands, province by province1

Neuquén The realignment of the wholesale official dollar (to ~$800 and then a managed crawl) improves the peso equation of the export-oriented Vaca Muerta hydrocarbon projects (more pesos per settled dollar) and reduces the incentive to under-invoice/hold foreign exchange; on the other hand it raises in pesos the import of dollarized upstream equipment and services. Expected net favorable for shale export development, with a higher imported-capex cost in the short term. mixed the RIGI promise is kept thesis

December 2023 devaluation: dollar to $800 + 2% crawl

What changed and who it applies to

Our reading

Where it lands, province by province1

The other rules on this subject12

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